The 2020 Tokyo Olympics have produced some interesting storylines thus far, but the gold-medal match between the United States and France has to be one of the best. The French team will look to maintain its two-game winning streak over the United States in hopes of winning its first-ever gold medal. They have won silver twice, once in 1948 and once in 2000. In contrast, the Americans have won gold in the last three Olympic games.
Only one of those streaks can stay alive tonight. However, I have a pair of player props that I expect to cash regardless of the outcome, and I’ve featured them below.
Olympic Lock of the Day: Jrue Holiday o11.5 Points | Men’s Basketball | +105 at DK Sportsbook
Olympic Lock YTD: 4-5 -1.08u
Jrue Holiday, not Kevin Durant, is the key to Team USA winning a gold medal tonight in Tokyo. Holiday combines defensive prowess with respectable scoring ability, and it should be enough for him to hit the over on this prop. Holiday has averaged 12 points per game at these Olympics, good for the 26th-most among players, and he scored 18 points against France in group play.
Sure, Devin Booker and Khris Middleton have had more time to adjust since the first game against France, and sure, they’ve also seen their minutes increase. Still, Holiday has continued to score a decent chunk of points. He scored 12 points against Spain in the quarterfinals and 11 against Australia in the semis. Also, Holiday’s strong defensive play keeps him on the court for extended runs. He ranks second in minutes per game among American players, trailing only Kevin Durant.
Holiday scored 18 points against France last time by shooting well from beyond the arc (3-for-6), drawing fouls, and making his free throws (5-for-6). That should work for him again tonight, especially since France should divert their attention to a red-hot Kevin Durant.
Other Olympic Betting Picks
Other Picks YTD: 12-12 -.03u
#1. Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Points | Men’s Basketball | -115 at DK Sportsbook
The French are on a two-game winning streak against the United States. Their strategy has been to let Gobert feast in the paint while Fournier shoots from the perimeter; the two players account for 85 of France’s 172 total points against Team USA. That’s just under half! While Fournier’s line (21.5) slightly undervalues his contributions against the Americans (21.5 points per game), Goberts’ line features a wider margin between the posted total (11.5) and his average points scored against the United States (17.5). The Americans don’t have an answer to the 7-foot-1 center on their roster, so he should cash this over handily even if the French lose.
#2. France ML | Men’s Basketball | +600 (.2u) at DK Sportsbook
This is a high-risk, high-reward play. France could extend their winning streak to three against Team USA, but Kevin Durant has shown us that the Americans can power back from even double-digit deficits to secure wins. Team USA has gotten better at not allowing their opponents to come back late in games, and their strong recent play has restored bettors’ confidence in the squad. That’s great news for bettors, as it creates more value in taking France as a moneyline underdog. I would wager just enough to secure a one-unit return.
#3. South Korea F5 -0.5 | Baseball | -105 at DK Sportsbook
When these teams last met, South Korea racked up seven hits against the Dominican Republic’s starter, Raul Valdés. Valdés lasted 5.1 innings, but South Korea only scored one run through that span, as they failed to capitalize on scoring opportunities. With Valdés back on the mound today, I expect South Korea’s offense to keep hitting well — and I’m optimistic that they can turn those baserunners into runs. Unlike the Dominican Republic, Korea will trot out a different starting pitcher today: Kim Min-woo. Kim boasts a 1.5 ERA through 6.0 IP at Tokyo, and I have faith that he’ll limit the Dominican offense more effectively than Lee Eui-lee.
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