Today’s slate is full of attractive matchups, but none present any semblance of value. With that in mind, looking for value in one of the day’s over/under totals became the goal. Our play of the day features two teams who have surpassed this game’s posted total in more than half of their contests since the All-Star break. However, a look at the starting pitchers suggests that the under may be the play. With that said, the line has already moved in this contest, and as a result, may alter which side the value lies on. Lets dig deeper to see what our analysis reveals.
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
|Team||Record||Power Ranking||Runs Scored||Differential|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||64-35||2||5.41||+151|
The Miami Marlins are in for a tough test as they do battle with the Los Angeles Dodgers in L.A. The Dodgers have been on fire this season and lead the majors with a 64-35 record. They also hold the best run differential in the league at +151. They have scored an elite 5.41 runs per game while limiting opponents to just 3.36 runs per contest. The Dodgers have been truly elite at home this season where they hold a 37-12 record. Their 37 home wins lead the league. Los Angeles has won four of seven since the All-Star break. They scored 11.2 runs per game in those contests. This will be their first meeting with the Marlins this season. The under has been hit in six of their last 10 contests.
Miami is still a struggling team, but they have a few bright spots on their roster that have helped propel them to wins. They have a poor 36-58 record and are the only team in the National League with under 40 wins on the season. They have scored a league-worst 3.64 runs per game. In the middle of the pack in terms of team ERA, the Marlins rank 14th with 4.27 runs allowed per game.
The Marlins have an identical amount of home and road wins at 18. They are 18-26 on the road. Miami has won three of their six games since the All-Star break. They have scored five runs per game in those contests. The under has been hit in six of their last 10 contests. Los Angeles holds the edge in the team form arena. Over 7.5 looks like the prudent play based on recent team form.
The Miami Marlins will be sending the struggling, but exciting prospect Zac Gallen to the mound. Los Angeles will be countering with electric All-Star Hyun-jin Ryu. Gallen has been finding the adjustment to major league hitting to be a tough one. He has allowed three runs or less in all of his starts but sits at 0-1 on the season. Gallen has a 4.24 ERA and unsightly 1.53 WHIP. Miami has lost three of his four starts. The 7.5 total has been hit in two of his four contests.
Hyun-jin Ryu has managed to stay healthy this season and is a Cy Young candidate because of it. Named the All-Star game starting pitcher for the National League, the Korean born Ryu has finally received his due. He has been dominant this season and holds a 10-2 record with a 1.78 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He has been even more impressive at home where he holds a 7-0 record with an unbelievable 0.85 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. Amazingly, he has allowed two runs or less in all but one of his 18 starts. The 7.5 total has been hit in seven of his last 11 contests. Los Angeles holds the overall edge in the form department. Recent form suggests that the over may be the play for this contest.
Edge: Los Angeles/Over
With the moneyline odds in this contest just as bad as all of the other most attractive plays for today, we will be focusing on over/under trends. Miami has been involved in games that have hit the under in five of their last six road games. The under has also been hit in five of their last six games against teams with winning records. Finally, it has been hit in four of their last five road games against teams with a home winning percentage over .600. On the other side of the coin, the over has been hit in seven of their last 11 Friday games. It has also been hit in seven of their last 11 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
Los Angeles has gone under the posted total three of their last four home contest against teams with losing road records. It has been hit in their last four home games. It has also been hit in five of their last six games against teams with a winning percentage under .400. Finally, the under has been hit in seven of their last 11 Friday games. On the flip side of things, they have hit the over in five of their last six overall. The over has been hit in six of their last nine games against starters with a WHIP higher than 1.30. Finally, the over has been hit in 10 of their last 16 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The under holds a slight edge based on team trends.
Due to Zac Gallen only making four career starts in the majors, there is no trend data available for him. The under looks like the play based on Ryu’s recent starts. The Dodgers have gone under the posted total in his last four starts against teams with losing records. It has been hit in four of his last five home starts. It has been hit in five of his last seven series openers. Finally, the under has been hit in 21 of his last 32 starts on four days of rest.
The line for this contest has already started to move. It opened at 8.0 and now sits at 7.5 at -110 at PointsBet. An initial glance at the pitchers and the dominance of Ryu at home may lead one to posit that the over is the smart play. Vegas set the line with that in mind. The line dropping under 8.0 provides some value on the over.
As mentioned above, the posted total for this contest has been hit in seven of Ryu’s last eleven starts. The non head to head trends, however, suggest that the under may be the play. And at the initial total of 8.0 that would have been the smarter play. The head to head trends again suggest the over. The over has been hit in 33 of these two teams last 51 meetings at Dodger Stadium. It has also been hit in 45 of their last 73 meetings overall. The initial lean suggested the under, but team and pitcher form, as well as head to head trends suggest that the over may actually be the play.
Line: Over 7.5 (-110)