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Top MLB Bet for July 31st

by July 31, 2019

Our play of the day is an interesting one. It features two teams in very different form. One is the favorite to represent the National League in the World Series. September will be what amounts to an early offseason for the other team who will be watching their division rival play from the comfort of their couches in October. Based on the teams and home/road splits of the two pitchers in this contest, the lean seems pretty obvious. However, our trend analysis reveals that the line Vegas set for this matchup was backed by the fact that the visitor’s starting pitcher has struggled not only against this team but in this ballpark specifically. Lets see which side our analysis tells us is the better value.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies

Team Record Power Ranking Runs Scored Differential
Los Angeles Dodgers 70-39 2 5.41 +161
Colorado Rockies 50-58 22 5.38 -39

 

Pitcher Record ERA WHIP
Hyun-Jin Ryu 11-2 1.74 0.96
German Marquez 10-5 4.88 1.23

 
Form
The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to do battle with the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Los Angeles has been on fire this season and is the only team in the league with 70 wins. They have scored an elite 5.41 runs per game and lead the league with a +161 run differential. In terms of team ERA, Los Angeles has boasted the best pitching staff in the league this season. While the Dodgers have not been nearly as dominant on the road as they are at Dodger Stadium, they still sport a rock-solid 30-25 road record. The Dodgers have won 10 of their 17 games since the All-Star break.

Colorado has truly had an up-and-down season. They have lost 13 of their 19 games since the All-Star break and find themselves eight games under .500 at 50-58. The Rockies have scored an elite 5.38 runs per game on the season but have a -39 run differential due to a pitching staff that surrenders the second-most runs per contest at 5.43. Colorado has a winning home record at 27-25. However, they surrender a league-worst 6.81 runs per game at Coors Field. Los Angeles holds the edge in the team form arena.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be sending surprising Cy Young candidate Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound. Colorado will be countering with road warrior German Marquez. Ryu has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season and currently sits with an 11-2 record. He has an elite 1.74 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Ryu has allowed two runs or less in all but one of his starts. He was massacred on the road by these very same Rockies for seven runs in just four innings of work. That is truly the only blemish on his record as he holds a sparkling 2.75 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road. Los Angeles has won six of his last eight starts.

As mentioned above, German Marquez truly has been a road warrior this season. He gets battered on a consistent basis at Coors Field where he holds a horrendous 7.07 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Numbers like those would get most pitchers sent to the minors. However, Marquez has a 3.20 ERA and 0.87 WHIP on the road. Marquez has allowed three or more runs in 12 of his 21 starts. Colorado has lost four of his last seven starts. The Dodgers hold the edge in the form department.

Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers

Trends
There are some intriguing trends for this contest. Los Angeles has won 49 of their last 70 games against the NL West. They have won 43 of their last 64 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles has won 40 of their last 67 game threes. Finally, they have won four of their last five games against teams with losing records. However, they have found a way to lose five of their last six road games against teams with losing records.

Colorado has lost six of their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. They have lost five of their last six home games, as well as their last four Wednesday games. The Rockies have lost nine of their last 10 games against the NL West. They have lost eight of their last nine games against left-handed starting pitchers. Finally, they have lost seven of their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record. The Dodgers hold a distinct advantage in the team trends arena.

The Dodgers have a great chance to win every time Ryu takes the mound. They have won 13 of his last 16 starts against the NL West. The Dodgers have won his last four starts on four days rest. They have won 44 of his last 59 starts against teams with losing records. Finally, they have won 19 of his last 28 road starts against teams with losing records. Interestingly, they have lost nine of his last 11 Wednesday starts.

The Rockies have been strong in Marquez’s recent starts. They have won 13 of his last 16 starts on four days of rest. They have won four of his last five home starts against teams with winning records. Colorado has won eight of his last 10 home starts. Finally, the Rockies have won nine of his last 13 Wednesday starts. Los Angeles holds the edge in the trends department.

Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers

Line
The line for this contest has already changed. The Dodgers opened at -135 and have moved as high as -141, and -140 at PointsBet. This is an intriguing contest. On one hand, we have arguably the best team in the majors facing a team that gives up a league-high in runs per game at home. They are also facing a pitcher in German Marquez that sees his ERA double when pitching at Coors Field. Seemingly solidifying matters is the fact that a Dodgers’ team that has won 14 of their last 17 against Colorado, and seven of their last 10 meetings in Colorado, will be sending a Cy Young candidate to the mound.

With all that said, why is the line for this contest so favorable? This is not necessarily a trap line once you have the data to analyze to help you understand Vegas thinking. Yes, Los Angeles has won eight of their 11 contests against the Rockies this season. However, Ryu has lost his last four road starts against the Rockies and suffered his worst game of the season against these Rockies in Colorado. The Dodgers have lost five of Ryu’s last seven starts against the Rockies. The lean, or which way you lean for this contest, ultimately comes down to which team one believes will have the worse game. Marquez and his 7.07 ERA and 1.70 appears to be the easy answer to that question.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (-140)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 30-26-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.