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Top MLB Bet for September 11th, 2019

by September 11, 2019

Today’s play of the day is battle between NL East rivals. These two teams have taken turns leading the division. The visiting team now has a commanding division lead and is sending the superior pitcher to the mound. The odds reflect that, as they make the home team the underdog. The season series and current series are both tied. These are two strong teams whose battles are often decided by the strength of their starting pitching and bullpens that day. While this is one of the more challenging contests of the day to accurately handicap, the odds reflect that and present potential value on both sides. Let’s dig deeper to uncover which team is the smarter play.

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Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Team Record Power Ranking Runs Scored Differential
Atlanta Braves 90-56 6 5.36 +101
Philadelphia Phillies 75-69 14 4.90 -5

 

Pitcher Record ERA WHIP
Dallas Keuchel 7-5 3.47 1.32
Zach Eflin 8-11 4.34 1.31


Form

Philadelphia now finds themselves in third place in the NL East. They remain in the mix for the final wild-card spot but have some ground to make up. They sit six games above .500 with a 75-69 record. One of only two winning teams with a negative run differential, the Phillies have had issues scoring runs all season. They have been solid at home where they hold a 42-32 record. The Phillies have won six of their last ten contests. Atlanta holds the edge in the team form arena. 

Atlanta will be sending midseason acquisition Dallas Keuchel to toe the rubber. Philadelphia will be countering with the talented but terribly inconsistent Zach Eflin. Dallas Keuchel has been solid for the Braves this season. He holds a 7-5 record with a 3.47 ERA. However, he has paired that with an ugly 1.32 WHIP. Spectacular at home, Keuchel has been knocked around on the road. He holds an unsightly 5.26 ERA and 1.65 WHIP that gives the Phillies a strong argument in this matchup. He has allowed three runs or less in 12 of his 15 starts. Keuchel allowed two runs in seven innings of work in his lone start against the Phillies this season. Atlanta has won six of his last seven starts. 

Zach Eflin has been so inconsistent this season that he has spent time as a reliever. He has an 8-11 record on the season which he has paired with a 4.31 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Eflin has been better at home this season from a record standpoint. He is 5-4 in 11 starts at Citizens Bank Park. He has a 4.26 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Eflin holds a 2.25 ERA and 0.83 WHIP through two September starts. He has allowed three runs or less in 18 of his 24 contests. Eflin surrendered six runs in both of his starts against Philadelphia this season. Philadelphia has lost seven of his last nine starts. 

Edge: Philadelphia Phillies

Trends

There are some interesting trends for this contest: 

Atlanta

  • They have won their last five Wednesday contests. 
  • They have won six of their last seven road contests against teams with winning records. 
  • They have won 40 of their last 57 contests against the NL East. 
  • They have won 35 of their last 51 game threes. 
  • They have won 35 of their last 52 contests against teams with a winning record. 

Philadelphia

  • They have won three of their last four contests. 
  • They have won eight of their last 14 home contests. 
  • They have won six of their last eight home contests against teams with a road winning percentage above .600.
  • They have lost six of their last eight contests against teams with a winning percentage above .600.

Dallas Keuchel

  • Atlanta has won his last four starts against the NL East. 
  • Atlanta has won his last five starts. 
  • Atlanta has won four of his last five game threes. 
  • Atlanta has won five of his last seven starts on four days of rest. 

Zach Eflin

  • Philadelphia has lost seven of his last nine starts.
  • Philadelphia has lost seven of his last nine Wednesday starts. 
  • Philadelphia has lost 12 of his last 14 starts against teams with a winning record. 
  • Philadelphia has lost four of his last five home starts against teams with winning records. 
  • Philadelphia has won seven of his last 10 game threes. 

Edge: Atlanta Braves

Line

The line for this contest has yet to see any movement. It opened at -147 for Atlanta, and it currently sits at -140 at PointsBet. Our analysis suggests that this should be an easy win for the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta has won five of their last seven contests against Philadelphia, and they are sending the superior starting pitcher to the mound. Zach Eflin has had his share of struggles lately, but his win probability will be buoyed by the fact that Philadelphia has won seven of their last 10 home games against Atlanta. With that said, Philadelphia sits 14 games behind Atlanta. Eflin has allowed 12 runs across 5.2 innings that spanned two stars. The season series is currently tied. Atlanta has been in much better form recently. 

Pick: Atlanta Braves (-140)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 41-33-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.

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