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Top MLB Bet for September 25th, 2019

by September 25, 2019

Today’s play of the day is a bankroll builder. With odds that have soared north of -300 overnight, the recommendation is to utilize today’s play in a parlay. The NFL schedule is full of moneyline options this weekend that can be considered. The two teams in this contest have played 17 times this season. The underdog in this contest has managed to win nine of the 17 contests. The visiting team is fighting for their playoff lives and will be playing in top form. They are sending one of the most electric pitchers in baseball to the mound, and appear to be a solid value despite the line. Let’s dig deeper to uncover if the visiting team still suggests value despite the heavy juice. 

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Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox

Team Record Power Ranking Runs Scored Differential
Cleveland Indians 93-64 6 4.81 +140
Chicago White Sox 68-88 21 4.34 -144

 

Pitcher Record ERA WHIP
Shane Bieber 15-7 3.23 1.03
Ross Detwiler 2-5 6.98 1.72

Form

The Cleveland Indians are set to square off with the Chicago White Sox in a battle of AL Central foes. Cleveland has had a remarkable season. From a start that had some worried about missing the playoffs altogether, the Indians are now in a battle for either of the two AL Wild Card spots. They are 93-64 and sit a half-game out. Cleveland has been solid on the road this season where they hold a 44-32 record. After struggling to score runs to open the season, the Indians runs scored per game average sits at a solid 4.81. Cleveland has won seven of their last eight contests. 

The Chicago White Sox have some promising young talent but still, find themselves 20 games under .500 at 68-88. Chicago has a 35-40 record at home. They have scored a poor 4.34 runs per game on the season. At 4.87 per contest, the White Sox have allowed the ninth most runs per game in the league. Chicago has lost six of their last nine contests. 

The Chicago White Sox will be sending Ross Detwiler to the mound. Cleveland will be countering with the exciting Shane Bieber. Bieber has been excellent this season. He has a 15-7 record on the season with a 3.23 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Shane Bieber has actually been better on the road this season. He has won nine of his 15 wins on the road. He holds a sparkling 2.77 ERA and 0.8 WHIP away from Progressive Field. Bieber has had his struggles against Chicago this season. In three contests he has a 4.58 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He has allowed three runs or less in 26 of his 32 starts. He has allowed two runs or less in 22 of his 32 starts. Cleveland has won his last four starts. 

Ross Detwiler has a poor 2-5 record with a 6.98 ERA and 1.72 WHIP on the season. He has made 16 appearances on the season with 10 starts. While Detwiler has been drastically better on the road this season, he has still been average at best. He holds a 4.62 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at U.S. Cellular Field. Detwiler has lit up in his lone start against Cleveland this season. He surrendered four runs and 10 baserunners in just 2.2 innings. Chicago has lost eight of his last 10 appearances. 

Edge: Cleveland Indians

Trends

The trends for this contest read as one may expect: 

Cleveland

  • They have won their last five road contests. 
  • They have won seven of their last eight contests. 
  • They have won 22 of their last 27 road contests against teams with winning records. 
  • They have won 40 of their last 53 contests against the AL Central. 
  • They have won 42 of their last 56 Wednesday contests. 
  • They have won 58 of their last 86 road contests against teams with losing home records. 

Chicago

  • They have lost eight of their last 10 home contests. 
  • They have lost 42 of their last 61 home contests against teams with winning road records. 
  • They have lost 18 of their last 26 contests.
  • They have lost four of their last five game two’s. 
  • They have lost their last four home contests against teams with winning records. 

Shane Bieber

  • Cleveland has won his last four starts. 
  • Cleveland has won six of his last seven game two’s. 
  • Cleveland has won five of his last six starts against the AL Central. 
  • Cleveland has won 15 of his last 20 starts. 
  • Cleveland has won seven of his last eight Wednesday starts. 
  • Cleveland has won 19 of his last 25 starts against teams with losing records. 

Ross Detwiler

  • Chicago has lost five of his last six starts against teams with winning records. 
  • Chicago has won his last four starts against the AL Central.
  • Chicago has lost eight of his last 10 appearances. 
  • He has allowed three or more runs in four of his last five starts. 

Edge: Cleveland Indians

Line

The line for this contest has made some dramatic movement. After open it actually moved from -290 to -289 on Cleveland. It can now be found at -335, and -320 at PointsBet. Cleveland has been on a roll and along with the Rays have made the AL Wild Card race a battle between three teams. In a must-win situation, the Cleveland Indians will be putting their best foot forward once again. They won the opening game of this series 11-0, and have won seven of their last eight. The line for this contest accurately reflects the Indians win probability. Shane Bieber is the far superior starting pitcher in this contest and has been excellent on the road this season. While a straight-up play to return a full unit is not suggested, angling for a partial unit return may be the more sound path. Alternatively, this contest can be parlayed with some of this weekend’s NFL action. 

Pick: Cleveland Indians (-335)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 44-34-3 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.