It’s time to build our bankroll for the weekend. With a lot of baseball on the horizon, I’ve put together my favorite three bets for tonight’s MLB slate on May 20.
Ride with me!
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Tampa Bay Rays are pretty short favorites, on the road, against the Baltimore Orioles. With Tyler Wells on the mound, the Rays should still find success.
Wells has had a 5.19 xFIP in the last 30 days with 15.6% strikeouts. He’s also earning just 35.5% ground balls in those previous 30 days and is giving up an ISO of .240 to righties.
On the other hand, the Rays will pitch Jalen Beeks, who has a 4.06 xFIP in the last 30 days. While he won’t strike out many batters, he’ll do almost everything else at an above-average rate. He’s earned 65.5% ground balls and allowed just 6.9% of line drives in the last 30 days. The Orioles are going to struggle against this Rays staff all series.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Tigers will send Tarik Skubal to the mound. In the last 30 days, Skubal has had a 2.96 xFIP with 29.9% of strikeouts and 6% of walks. He’s been almost unhittable and untouchable. Meanwhile, the Guardians have a .060 ISO and wOBA of .229 against lefties in the last 30 days.
On the other hand, Aaron Civale will take the hill for the Guardians. This year, the veteran pitcher has had some hiccups but ultimately is going up against a Detroit lineup with a .078 ISO and wOBA of .258. Civale limits walks, earns a solid amount of strikeouts, and won’t have much trouble defeating this Tigers lineup.
I trust the veteran pitcher over a team that just can’t be consistent at the plate. Civale isn’t going to walk himself off the mound, for example.
Let’s grab the under 9 in this matchup between two awful offenses.
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
I’m expecting runs in this game with two below-average lefties on the mound. Daniel Lynch will man the mound for the Royals. In the last 30 days, he has had a 5.77 xFIP with 11.5% of walks. He’ll go up against a Twins lineup with a .194 ISO and wOBA of .333 against lefties in the last 30 days.
On the other hand, Devin Smeltzer will give it a go for the Twins. He has had a 5.98 xFIP in the last 30 days, using 19 plate appearances. It’s a small sample size, but in those 19 at-bats, he has struck out just 10.5% of batters while walking 10.5% of batters.
Don’t expect too much out of the Royals, but with the Royals adding six righties in the lineup, Kansas City should be able to string across some runs.
Take the over between the Twins and Royals.
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