Just when we thought a trend might be emerging in the early part of the MLB season, nearly the exact opposite happened on Sunday. In Saturday’s action, the under went 13-1-1 in the 15-game slate. However, offenses mostly woke up on Sunday, as the overs rebounded to go 8-6-1. High Heat Stats on Twitter explained what might have been the cause of struggling offenses entering Sunday.
https://twitter.com/HighHeatStats/status/1513192950041305094
How will the over/under trends play out this week?
Here are our best bets for Monday's MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-155) vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off an emotionally charged series against the Chicago Cubs that featured several beanballs and a bench-clearing scuffle. Milwaukee did well to salvage the last game of the series at Wrigley and now head to Camden Yards to face an Orioles team, the last remaining winless team in the majors. The Brewers would likely be at least -200 moneyline favorites if any of their big three (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta) were pitching. Still, we are getting decent value in this matchup with Adrian Houser on the mound.
Houser does not have the elite stuff that the other three pitchers on his staff have, but he still went a respectable 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 28 appearances last year. Baltimore looks well on its way to another 110+ loss season, and they are 1-24 in their last 25 day games following a loss. Take advantage of Milwaukee’s reasonable moneyline odds over the American League’s worst team while you can.
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-155 at DraftKings)
Detroit Tigers ML (+105) vs. Boston Red Sox
A storied rivalry like the Yankees and Red Sox will often play its series finales on Sunday Night Baseball to broadcast their games nationally. While that is good for the fans, it hurts the team that has to travel the next day, in this case, the Red Sox. Detroit does not have to leave the comfort of their city after playing host to the White Sox, while Boston flew into Detroit early this morning after their game against the Yankees ended late.
It is unclear if Boston’s Trevor Story will be in the lineup today as he sat out yesterday with an illness. And while the Red Sox got RBIs from Jonathan Arauz and Christian Arroyo last night, that is not something Boston will want to rely on for offensive success.
Red Sox starter Michael Wacha’s best days are behind him, as he has pitched to a 5.40 ERA over the last two seasons (158.2 IP). Detroit is 5-1 in its previous six games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a home loss, and we like them to beat a worn-down Red Sox team in today’s series opener.
Bet: Detroit Tigers ML (+105 at DraftKings)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees O/U 9
Toronto enters this series as the second-highest scoring team in baseball, having pushed 20 runs across the plate over the first three games. However, they have also allowed the most runs of any team (23), and that was to a light-hitting Texas Rangers team. The Yankees offense is much more formidable and has two players, Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton, who look locked in at the plate. The latter is tearing the cover off the ball in terms of exit velocity, as six of his eight balls put in play this year had an exit velocity of at least 112 mph.
New York is coming off a taxing series against Boston, which saw their bullpen used for 18.2 innings over the first three games, as no Yankees starter lasted longer than four innings. That is a recipe for disaster when facing the high-powered Blue Jays offense, and we do not expect Jameson Taillon to be an innings-eater in his season debut. Meanwhile, the Yankees offense went just 5-33 with RISP in their series against Boston and left 11 men on base last night. Had New York capitalized on more opportunities, we might see a double-digit total in this series opener.
Bet: OVER 9 runs (-115 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.