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Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Sunday, May 15 (2022)

by May 15, 2022
Elieser Hernandez Miami Marlins

Due to a blown save, the Yankees couldn’t cash our ticket yesterday, pushing us to 1-2 on Saturday. Let’s get some redemption today, with the entire slate of games, but one, playing in the afternoon.

Our best bets for Sunday, May 15 in the MLB are below.

(Odds courtesy DraftKings)

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins

The total in this game is sitting at 7 with Brandon Woodruff and Elieser Hernandez on the mound. Hernandez has a 5.76 xFIP with 19.6% strikeouts in the last 30 days. He’s also struggled against both sides of the plate, giving up a .366 wOBA and ISO of .299 to lefties and a .339 wOBA and ISO of .200 to righties in the last 30 days.

There are many elite power hitters in the Brewers lineup that can smash Hernandez out of the park. Meanwhile, Brandon Woodruff has been better analytically than the box score suggests, but he’s had trouble with righties, allowing a .396 wOBA and ISO of .237. He’s also giving up an ISO of .220 to righties in the last 30 days.

Therefore, I like the Over 7 in this one.

Bet: Over 7 (-120 at DraftKings) 

Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers

I’m going with the better starting pitcher in this game. Both offenses are far from elite, and neither offense will get much offense today.

However, Tarik Skubal of the Tigers has been terrific analytically, with a 2.82 xFIP with 26.7% of strikeouts and 4.3% of walks allowed.

Neither lineup has much power, but the Tigers should succeed against Tyler Wells of the Orioles, knowing his xFIP is above 5 and his strikeout percentage is below 20%.

After all, Skubal gets 55.6% of ground balls and allows under 16% of line drives, while Wells only gets 37.1% of ground balls. Wells has limited the walks, but I’m banking on the Tigers to find a way and get a couple of runs on the board for Skubal.

Bet: Tigers (-135 at DraftKings) 

Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Justin Steele will take the mound for the Cubs today. The lefty hasn’t been particularly good, with a 5.78 xFIP in the last 30 days. Steele has struck out 16.3% of batters while walking 14% of batters in that same time frame. That’s not going to get the job done.

Arizona will have at least six righties in the lineup facing Steele and, as a group, in the last 30 days, have a .202 ISO with a wOBA of .293 against lefties. A couple of base hits and a blast could be on the horizon against Steele.

Meanwhile, Humberto Castellanos is going to take the mound for the Diamondbacks. He’s got a 5.58 xFIP with 15.6% strikeouts. He’s been far from perfect but has limited power and wOBA numbers this season. I’ll trust Castellanos more against a Cubs lineup with a .118 ISO against righties in the last 30 days.

Bet: Diamondbacks (-125 at DraftKings)

CTAs

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