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Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Wednesday, May 18th (2022)

by May 18, 2022
Max Fried

Baseball is one of the only sports where fans routinely walk away from games telling themselves, “I have never seen that happen before.” In the last week alone, we have seen some of the rarest things occur. First, the Cincinnati Reds became the sixth team to lose a game where they threw a no-hitter. Then yesterday, Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi became just the third player in MLB history to allow five home runs in one inning. What unique and crazy occurrence will be in store on today’s 15-game slate?

We are off to a 5-1 start to the week and look for a third consecutive profitable day with three more “non-traditional” wagers.

Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers First Five Innings Total

The best pitching matchup of the day is in this Braves-Brewers afternoon tilt, as two preseason Cy Young candidates in the National League face off.

With five Atlanta pitchers (including starter Mike Soroka) on the IL, the Braves will need consistent solid performances from Max Fried going forward if they want to close the gap with the first-place Mets. Milwaukee’s lineup is not as deep or intimidating without Willy Adames (ankle) and Andrew McCutchen (COVID-19 IL), and Fried has a lefty-lefty advantage against Rowdy Tellez and Christian Yelich.

Opposing Fried is the defending Cy Young Award winner, Corbin Burnes. Amazingly, Burnes is just 1-2 despite pitching to a 1.77 ERA, which suggests the lack of run support he often gets. His team has scored 20 runs in his starts, and Burnes has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts.

There is not much room for error with this first five innings total, but we expect these two talented pitchers to match zeros this afternoon.

Bet: Braves-Brewers F5 Innings UNDER 3 (+100 at DraftKings)  

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies F5 Innings ML

Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (1-3, 4.26) has rebounded tremendously from a poor start. Wheeler has allowed three earned runs in his last 19 innings after posting an 8.53 ERA through his first three starts. That is more of what we expect from Wheeler, who finished second in the Cy Young voting last year.

After landing on the IL with a groin injury, Padres lefty Blake Snell makes his season debut. Snell was limited to 59 pitches in five innings in his final rehab start at Triple-A El Paso, so the team will likely be cautious with him in his first couple of starts. However, San Diego’s timid approach will be no different than last year when Snell was healthy, as he threw five or fewer innings in nine of his first 11 starts. Snell was also not a fast starter last year, pitching to a 4.99 ERA and winning just three of his first 16 starts before the All-Star Break.

For as long as Snell is in the game, Phillies hitters should have a field day, as they rank third in the majors with a .780 OPS against left-handed pitching. If Bryce Harper is in the lineup, that is a massive boost to the Philadelphia offense, as he has eight hits in his last 12 at-bats (including seven extra-base hits) with 8 RBIs.

Bet: Philadelphia Phillies F5 Innings ML (-165 at DraftKings)  

St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Race to 2 Runs

Max Scherzer (4-1, 2.66) had a streak of 24 consecutive starts without suffering a loss end on May 8th at Philadelphia. He has now gone two straight starts without a victory, so it suffices to say, “Mad Max” will be pitching angry tonight.

Scherzer ranks seventh among all pitchers in WHIP (0.91) and fifth in strikeouts (55). He has been equally dominant versus both left-handed and right-handed batters, allowing an OBA of .182 and .195 to each. When evaluating his chances of success against the Cardinals, one must look at how he has fared against St. Louis’ two biggest bats, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. The two Cardinals sluggers are a combined 9-for-48 (.188) against Scherzer. Furthermore, just two players that figure to be in the lineup (Corey Dickerson and Tommy Edman) are hitting better than .200 against Scherzer in their careers.

The Mets will likely require Scherzer to go deep in the game following yesterday’s doubleheader, but we will still take the bullpen out of the equation and back him to shut down St. Louis’ offense in the beginning part of the game, leading to the Mets winning the race to score the first two runs.

Bet: New York Mets to Score the First Two Runs (-150 at DraftKings)  

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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