Yesterday was a good day for favorites, and a profitable day for overs. Favorites went 12-5 in the massive 17-game slate, and overs went 10-6-1. What kind of trends are we in store for with today’s seven-game slate?
Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies O/U
Miami has been limited to two or fewer runs in nine of its last ten games. Today, the Marlins send a pitcher to the mound who is currently the -300 moneyline favorite at FanDuel to win the National League Cy Young. Not to mention, the under is 22-8-2 in Miami’s last 32 games overall. So what in the world is possessing us to bet the over? I promise, we are not crazy, just contrarian.
Through July 24, Sandy Alcantara (12-7, 2.36) was 9-4 with a 1.81 ERA and a league-leading 0.90 WHIP after a road start at Pittsburgh. Since then, it has been rocky for the Cy Young Award contender, as he is 3-3 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Alcantara leads the league with 190.2 innings pitched and 743 batters faced, and given he is on pace to shatter his previous career-high of innings (205.2 IP in 2021), it is fair to wonder if the young ace is dealing with fatigue.
Miami’s offense looks to break out against Kyle Gibson (9-6, 4.48). Gibson has made four starts against the Marlins this year (pitched to a 2.98 ERA) and is coming off allowing a season-worst seven earned runs in 1.2 innings against the Giants.
Gibson’s ERA is also nearing 5.00 (4.94) in 14 night starts, and with how frequently the Marlins hitters have seen him this season, we expect the advantage to shift to them in this matchup.
The Phillies are 0-4 in Gibson’s last four Thursday starts and have lost four consecutive games against right-handed starting pitchers. So perhaps those trends bode well for Miami doing its part in the scoring today.
Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics RL
With our first pick, we are fading the NL Cy Young favorite. With our second pick, we are fading the pitcher with the second-best odds (+110) to win the AL Cy Young. Again, I promise we’re not crazy.
Since being acquired by the Yankees, JP Sears (5-1, 2.37) has pitched to a 2.66 ERA in five starts. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in that span and has completed at least five innings each time. Sears is coming off two consecutive quality starts and tied a season-high with five strikeouts in his last outing. Thus, we think he can match zeros with White Sox ace Dylan Cease (13-6, 2.13), who came within one out of a no-hitter in his last start.
This game’s odds are inflated because of Cease’s last spectacular start, but before that, Chicago had lost three of the previous four games Cease toed the rubber.
Oakland ran into the buzzsaw that is the Braves, who ran their winning streak to seven games against sweeping the A’s in a mini two-game series. However, the A’s scored 12 runs on 12 hits over the two days, so their offense is not rolling over lately.
The A’s have covered the runline in four of Sears’ five starts and 48.9% of its games overall. Thus, if you do not feel confident about Oakland’s moneyline odds, take the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.
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