Want a reason to back the overs in games involving the Boston Red Sox? Look no farther than Jon Morosi’s tweet.
Good news for the #RedSox: They have scored the most runs in the AL since the trade deadline.
Bad news? They’ve *given up* the most runs over that period, as well.@MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) September 6, 2022
Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees Game 1 ML
In what is sure to be one of the more contrarian plays of the day, we are eschewing New York’s relatively cheap moneyline odds in favor of the Twins as slight underdogs with a pitcher making his MLB debut.
Louie Varland is Minnesota’s 12th-ranked prospect and is an absolute flame thrower who has topped 100 mph on the gun in the minor leagues. Varland was named Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year following the 2021 season and went 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA in four starts at Triple-A this year. In addition, New York has been historically poor against pitchers it is facing for the first time, so we should see Varland keep the Yankees off balance at least through the first couple of times through the batting order.
Varland is opposed by Domingo German (2-3, 3.12). German’s 4.44 xERA is significantly worse than his actual ERA, as is his 4.61 xFIP to his 4.32 actual FIP. Thus, that suggests he has been very fortunate to have the numbers he does, and his low ground ball rate (37.9%) does not play well at the small confines of Yankee Stadium.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies ML
Milwaukee’s Eric Lauer (10-6, 3.54) enters the House of Horrors that is Coors Field, as his career numbers there are atrocious. In five road starts against the Rockies, Lauer is 0-4 with a 14.63 ERA. As a result, Coors Field is the only ballpark where he has made at least four starts but not earned a win.
Colorado is successful against left-handed starting pitchers relative to their overall record. The Rockies are 24-29 against lefties (.453 winning percentage vs. .423 overall) and should once again pose issues for the Brewers southpaw. That is especially true of Charlie Blackmon, who is 12-for-22 with two home runs in his career off Lauer.
Milwaukee is 3-10 in its last 13 road games against teams with a losing record, and given all these trends, we love the Rockies at plus-odds.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Team Total O/U
San Diego has had its struggles of late, losing three of four games and entering the day just seven games over .500 at home. However, Yu Darvish (12-7, 3.26) has been so good of late that we give the Padres much more respect when he is on the mound.
In his last seven starts, Darvish has a 0.97 WHIP and better than a 6.5:1 K:BB ratio. Darvish has struck out 14 Diamondbacks in his previous 14 innings and is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three starts against them this year. He has won back-to-back starts and posted nine quality starts in his last ten outings.
The under is 3-0-1 in Darvish’s last four starts with four days of rest, and we expect him to shut down the Diamondbacks lineup again.
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