Don’t look now, but it is Friday the 13th! Is this the proper day to be betting? After all, anything can happen; heck, maybe we’ll actually see offense rise to the top today. Well, maybe not everything.
There are many ways to bet on a baseball game. One of the most exciting ways, now, are No Run First Inning Bets (NRFI). Really, it's as simple as it sounds; you can bet on whether a run will be scored by either team in the first inning. Especially at a time when scoring is at an all-time low, it's more likely than not that a run is not scored, leading to prices being juiced towards the "under" taking place. Even with that, the most logical bets are usually to side with the under, as you'll see here!
San Francisco Giants at St.Louis Cardinals
The MLB schedule can be quite unique, and, thus, we see the Giants facing off against the Cardinals for a second straight weekend. Their four games last weekend resulted in a net run differential of zero and a series split, and this weekend should feature similar tight action between two NL playoff hopefuls.
In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the lowest-scoring game of the day. Although Giants starter Logan Webb struggled slightly (5 IP, 4 ER) against St.Louis last Saturday, he’s still a very effective pitcher, ranking above-average in Eno Sarris’ stuff+ (111.4) and pitching+ (109.6) model, and he still is missing enough bats (11.4% swinging-strike rate). In addition, he doesn’t allow walks (5.3% BB) and induces an extensive amount of ground balls (60.9%), limiting the home runs he allows. Don’t be mistaken; he’s still the epitome of a trustworthy frontline starter.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals starter Jordan Hicks still is a question mark in terms of his ability to go deep into games, but he is another pitcher who’ll limit the home runs he allows by inducing an exceptional amount of ground balls (career 63.6% GB) with a very strong arsenal (110.3 stuff+). That combination makes him effective in short inning stints, especially playing behind an elite defense, which is all we are worried about here,
Oh, and this game will be played at Busch Stadium, which is tied for the lowest park factor in all of baseball, per Baseball Savant. In other words, a case can be made that there is not a better ballpark to pitch in in terms of not allowing runs. So, two effective pitchers who won’t allow home runs in a very pitcher-friendly environment? Sign me up for that!
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers
It’s hard to imagine it now, but these two teams actually faced off in the 2014 American League Division Series. This year, I wouldn’t bank on that, but that’s perfect for the NRFI here.
These are two bottom-six offenses in terms of runs scored per game, with the Tigers ranking last with just 2.7 runs per game. In fact, in their last 15 games, they have only exceeded three runs scored one, and have averaged just 1.6 runs per game. That is great news for Orioles starter Jordan Lyles, who has been effective enough (4.28 skill interactive ERA/SIERA) to limit arguably the worst offense in baseball right now.
Although it was a rough start to his Tigers career for Eduardo Rodriguez, he’s been very effective over his last four outings, posting a 3.39 SIERA and 18.6% K-BB ratio. It’s easy to forget, but he ranked 20th in all of baseball with a 20.4% K-BB ratio, and he’s in the perfect spot to continue to get into his groove against an Orioles lineup that is already not a feared group, but also has the fourth-worst wRC+ against lefties currently. Oh, and Comerica Park also happens to be one of the top ballparks in terms of surprising home runs. Take the NRFI here.
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins
With the Cleveland organization being without a lot of their coaching staff due to COVID-19, here’s hoping this game happens as planned. This wouldn’t seem like the most likely game for an NRFI, but I like our chances here.
After dealing with a dip in velocity in his first two starts, Twins starter Sonny Gray looked completely back to form in his first start coming off the injured list last weekend, sitting 92 MPH with his fastball. With three straight seasons with a SIERA under 4.00 and a strikeout rate of 27% or higher, as well as the ability to limit home runs by inducing plenty of ground balls (career 52.5% GB rate), he’s someone you can have faith getting through the top of the Cleveland lineup, which features little power at the top; getting through Jose Ramirez will be the main hurdle here, but the lack of power at the top makes there a likelier chance that no run is scored.
With a 9.45 ERA in five starts this season, it may seem astonishing to have faith in Aaron Civale at this point. Yet, a lot of the traditional indicators of poor luck (very high .381 batting average on balls in play allowed, extremely low 43.2% left-on-base rate) indicate that his struggles aren’t completely legitimate, while his 3.99 SIERA and 16.2% K-BB paints a much better story. Yes, he’s allowing a lot of hard contact (13.4% barrel) right now, but pitchers have historically had very low control over the quality of contact they allow, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets back on track.
This is not the most likely game to see no runs scored. However, with the odds very favorable due to some concerns about these pitchers, particularly Civale, I highly recommend taking advantage. It isn’t the chalk play, but, sometimes, we have to risk it for the biscuit!
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