As you get into your holiday weekend, let’s look at some MLB matchups. There’s an opportunity to take a big underdog bet that will help you get a great return with this parlay so let’s see what games you should be looking at for this Saturday.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Colorado Rockies (-104) vs. Washington Nationals (-112) O/U 9
(First Pitch 12:06 p.m. ET)
After looking great in April by going 12-8, the Rockies will finish the May under .500 as they’re currently 8-15 this month.
The offense continues to be one of the best in the league, and they’ve stayed consistent, batting .261 in April and .262 so far in May.
The pitching has been their downfall and has lost them quite a few games recently. It was already near the bottom with a 4.52 ERA in April, but it has plummeted with a 5.27 ERA in May, and they are 28th with a 4.91 ERA.
Chad Kuhl has been one of those reasons with inconsistencies throughout the season. While in his last start against the Pirates, he allowed just one earned, he had allowed a total of ten earned in the previous two starts. His pitches are moving well below the league average, and he has an exit veto of 90.6 and a hard-hit percentage of 42.5%. He should have some relief as Washington is last in exit velocity (87.2) and hard-hit percentage (34).
Like Kuhl, Joan Adon he’s been inconsistent himself. He was pitching better in May with a 4.73 ERA this month as opposed to 7.33 in April, but after the start against the Dodgers, his ERA for this month ballooned to 6.50. He has an incredible curveball that bottoms out of the zone, and if his fastball is working, he likes to elevate it out of the zone. When he keeps it in the zone, he gets lit up. Colorado has been one of the better lineups in the league against the fastball and should be able to get some good at-bats.
While you don’t want to hang your hat on either pitcher, I trust Colorado way more to get it done and grab a win.
Leg 1: Rockies ML
Kansas City Royals (+132) vs. Minnesota Twins (-156) O/U 8.5
(First Pitch 2:11 p.m. ET)
After starting the season in the bullpen, Brady Singer has been astonishing in his first two starts as he’s allowed the same line of four hits in seven innings. One of those was the against Twins, where he spread out three walks in that start but only got into one jam late.
There was a time when Chris Archer was a young rising star in his days with Tampa Bay, but he’s struggled with injuries and performance over the last few years.
The velocity and movement in his off-speed pitches are well below the league average, and it’s caused him to get hit hard all season as he has an average exit velocity of 88.2 and a hard-hit percentage of 40.4%. Although the Royals have injuries to key players (Salvador Pérez, Edward Olivares, Kyle Isbel, Cam Gallagher, and Michael Taylor are all on the 10-day IL), this lineup still has six batters with at least a 90-mph exit velocity off of right-handers.
I expect Singer to pitch well again, but he’ll later put it in the hands of one of the worst bullpens in the league with a 5.13 ERA. Singer will leave with a lead, but who knows if he’ll get the win.
Leg 2: 1st Half Result – Royals (+145)
Cleveland Guardians (-154) vs. Detroit Tigers (+130) O/U 7.5
(First Pitch 4:11 p.m. ET)
Shane Bieber has not looked like the Shane Bieber from previous years. The velocity and movement on his pitches have dropped, along with his swing and miss rate, but he’s one of the more effective pitchers in the league. He had one bad outing against the Blue Jays a couple of weeks back, but other than that, he’s allowed three or fewer runs in his other seven starts. He came off a quality start against the Tigers last week, where he went seven innings, allowing three runs and two earned and striking out ten.
The Tigers acquired some big bats in the offseason, but it’s not going so well. Javier Biaz is hitting just .201, and Austin Meadows, who is currently on the IL, struggled in his last eight games, hitting just .179. Collectively this offense is last in home runs (25), slugging percentage (.319), and hard-hit percentage (34.1).
The pitching has done well this year, including Alex Faedo, who was slightly better than Bieber last week by giving up just two earned runs in the win.
Faedo has yet to pitch out of the sixth inning because the Tigers have the second-best bullpen ERA this season (2.84). Bieber also doesn’t need to stretch out a start because, at 3.27, his bullpen is just as good.
This game is a toss-up, but the pitchers will keep the runs low.
Leg 3: Under 7.5
Total parlay odds on FanDuel: +781
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