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Top NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, February 16

by February 16, 2021

We’ve got an exciting six-game slate on tap for tonight, including a marquee matchup between the Nets and Suns. You can catch the action live on TNT!

If you’re looking to get some skin in the game, here are the top NBA betting plays for Tuesday, February 16, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):

Betting Lock of the Day

Bisson: Grizzlies +0.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)

Nothing about the way New Orleans has played of late has me feeling warm and fuzzy about their chances in this one. They’ve allowed more than 130 points on average over their past three games, all double-digit road losses. And while the Grizzlies aren’t exactly setting the world on fire themselves, they’ve won two of three and at least look somewhat capable on the defensive end. Give me the home team in what essentially amounts to a straight-up pick.

Sirois: Nets +5.5 (-112 at FD Sportsbook)

I’ll be honest: I don’t love tonight’s slate. That said, I don’t mind taking the Nets plus the points. They beat the Kings by double-digits last night, and they didn’t gas any of their stars — James Harden’s 35 minutes won’t be enough to limit him here, and Kyrie Irving only had to play 31. This game will be a high-contrast battle — the Nets rank third-fastest in pace and third in offensive efficiency, while the Suns rank third-slowest in pace and sixth-best in defensive efficiency. Ultimately, my read comes down to the fact that the Nets are getting 5.5 points tonight. They’re 5-3 ATS (.625) as underdogs, while the Suns are 11-7 (.611) as favorites. My efficiency-based model expects the Suns to win by just a 0.1-point margin, too.

Top Team Prop of the Day

Bisson: Nets Under 113.5 (-114 at FD Sportsbook)

Don’t be fooled by what the Nets have done over their past two games. Averaging 135 points in wins over Golden State and Sacramento might compel some people to lean toward the over – but those two teams like to push the pace, while the Suns are one of the slowest teams in the league. Brooklyn is also playing the tail end of a back-to-back, so the Suns will have a decided advantage there. This one could be more of a slog than oddsmakers are anticipating.

Sirois: Blazers First Quarter Over 29.5 (-106 at FD Sportsbook)

The Blazers score the most points per first quarter (31.2), and the Thunder allow the fifth-most points per first quarter (29.5). Both of those averages point to value on the over here, yet the juice sits firmly on the under. The Blazers have hit this over in their last five first quarters, too. That said, it’s worth noting that the Thunder have been uncharacteristically good in the first quarter of late, and they held the Blazers to just 24 first-quarter points back in January. I’m not dissuaded, however; Portland’s offense has been starting games off too hot to second-guess this play.

Top Player Prop of the Day

Bisson: Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 Points (-110 at FD Sportsbook)

No Will Barton. No Gary Harris. No Paul Millsap. The Nuggets will be a short-handed unit Tuesday in Beantown, which means even more usage for one of the league’s MVP front-runners. Denver is going to need a lot from Jokic in this one, and the Celtics don’t really have anyone capable of containing him on the offensive end of the floor. His season scoring average is 26.5 – and he should have no trouble surpassing that here.

Sirois: Kyrie Irving Under 5.5 Assists (-102 at FD Sportsbook)

With James Harden now playing point guard, Irving doesn’t dish as frequently. He is averaging just 3.5 assists per game over his last two games, far below his season-long average of 5.7. It helps that the Phoenix Suns allow the 10th-fewest assists per game to shooting guards (4.2), the fewest assist per game to point guards (6.4), and the fewest total assists per game (21.8). Those factors should help Irving stay under this total no matter how close Brooklyn keeps this game.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

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