We start the week off with a good four-game slate of hockey. Below, I give out my two best bets for Monday night.
Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Toronto Maple Leafs (+110) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-130), o/u 6.5 (-105/-115)
We have an Atlantic Division tilt as the second-place Toronto Maple Leafs travel to Tampa Bay to take on the third-place Lightning. As a short underdog, the Maple Leafs have been playing too good of hockey to pass up in this contest at plus money.
Do not get me wrong, I definitely believe that Tampa Bay is the better team and will make a deeper run in the playoffs. However, this Toronto team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and I would not be shocked if they pulled off the upset on the road.
Toronto has won four straight games and seven of their last nine. They have some high-quality wins in that stretch too as they have beaten Carolina, Florida, and Boston.
On the flip side, Tampa Bay is just 4-4 over their last eight games, including their last outing where they lost to the lowly Montreal Canadiens. This season, the Maple Leafs rank higher than the Lightning in both five-on-five expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF) and five-on-five expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA).
Tampa Bay is a very short favorite, a position they do not find themselves in often. I believe the public will be all over the Lightning, which makes me even more confident in the Maple Leafs on Monday night.
Arizona Coyotes (+295) @ St. Louis Blues (-260), o/u 6 (-115/-105)
We have a Central Division tilt as the eighth-place Arizona Coyotes travel to St. Louis to take on the third-place Blues. Both teams have seen many high-scoring games lately, indicating that we may be in store for another high-scoring affair.
There have been six or more total goals scored in 10 of Arizona’s last 14 games, while there have been six or more total goals scored in 10 of the Blues’ last 12 games. Poor defensive play for both teams has been the primary driving factor for these high-scoring games.
Arizona has given up an average of 3.88 goals over their last eight games, which means they will be in serious trouble going against the Blues on the road. This season, the Coyotes rank just 30th in the league in five-on-five expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA).
St. Louis also has troubling defensive metrics as they rank just 26th in the league in five-on-five expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA). On the flip side, the Blues’ offense has been dialed in recently as they are averaging four goals scored per game over their last eight contests.
With two poor defenses and a very hot Blues offense in this game, I like the total goals scored to reach at least six.
Best of luck!
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.