We had a nice 3-0 start to the week after sweeping our picks on Monday. After taking yesterday off, we return for Wednesday’s seven-game slate. Be sure to note, both games below are slated for a 5:00 PM EST puck drop – get those bets in early!
YTD: 62-44 (+27.46)
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Carolina Hurricanes (+118) vs. TB Lightning (-137)
If you’re looking for a sweat when you leave work today but don’t want to go for a run because it stinks out loud, look no further than betting this game.
Tonight will be the fourth matchup of the season between these two Eastern Conference powerhouses. Thus far, Carolina has taken two of three from Tampa Bay – the reigning Stanley Cup Champions.
Monday night, the Lightning responded by setting the tone and pace early in the first period after being shut out by the ‘Canes over the weekend. However, as the game went on, we saw the ice tilt back in Carolina’s favor, registering a 63.64% HDCF in the third period.
Let’s analyze Monday’s key 5v5 game metrics below:
- CF%: CAR (50.49) TB (49.51)
- HDCF: CAR (11) TB (9)
- xGF: CAR (2.63) TB (2.54)
- xGF%: CAR (50.94) TB (49.06)
As we can see, this game was evenly matched despite the final 4-2 victory in Tampa’s favor – Who were the beneficiaries of a power-play goal and a lucky bounce on their eventual game-winner.
Apart from goaltending, I believe Carolina is the deeper team overall. They got stronger as the game went on Monday, and I’ll look for them to keep that momentum in this one.
Dallas Stars (+110) vs. Florida Panthers (-127)
On paper, there’s not much to like about the Dallas Stars. They’ve lost six-straight games and have yet to find their footing after a myriad of postponed games. It’s been so bad that even Debbie wouldn’t do or bet Dallas in these uncertain times.
The Panthers have been excellent to start the season and currently sit first in the Central Division. Jonathan Huberdeau continues to be one of the most underrated players in the game and leads the team with 23-points.
On Monday, despite outshooting the Stars 51-25 and wiping the floor with them analytically, the Panthers just got by with a 3-1 victory – including an empty-net goal.
These two teams are relatively even in CF% and GF%, while Florida has a slight edge in xGF/60. Although peppered in the first matchup, having made 49 saves, I expect Dallas to start Anton Khudobin, which will give them the edge in net.
We’ve also seen the Panthers struggle in the second of these two-game sets.
Pick: Dallas (+110) or better
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