There are four critical games tonight as each of these series has turned into a best of three. We’ve seen the momentum change so much in each of these series that I wouldn’t be shocked if we talked about a winner-take-all Game 7. Of course, a win tonight would be pivotal, so let’s see who has the advantage tonight.
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(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Lightning (+105) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-130) O/U 6.5
(Puck Drop 7:37 p.m ET)
The Leafs' stars are not playing up to their potential, and it could be bad news that this series becomes a best of three. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Jonathan Tavares have combined for just two assists and three points total in Games 3 and 4. Matthews, a favorite for Hart Trophy, hasn't scored since Game 1, while Tavares has only one assist all series.
Toronto’s big problem has been that power play. They were one of the best Power Play teams in the leagues at a 27.3% conversion rate. But through the first three games of the playoffs, they are only converting at 16.7%.
They're going to need the help as Jack Campbell struggled badly in Game 4. Campbell allowed the first shot he saw in Game 4 to get past him, and before the game was eight minutes in, Tampa was up 3-0, then was pulled in the second period after it was 5-0.
Tampa once again controlled the 5-on-5 play in Game 4, earning a 55% to 45% advantage. That was the third time in four games they've had the better percentage at even strength numbers, and they also produced three more high dangers scoring chances than Toronto.
It all came down to goaltending, with the 2021 Conn Smythe Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy continuing his streak of not losing back-to-back playoff games.
It's hard not to favor the back-to-back champions in these situations, especially as it looks like they're getting into a rhythm. On the other side, the Leafs have the talent to put the puck in the back of the net and could turn it on at any moment. This has been one of those series where the momentum swings from game to game. Look for both of these offenses to be ready for a pivotal game.
Leg 1: Over 6.5
Boston Bruins (+130) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-130) O/U 6
(Puck Drop 7:07 p.m. ET)
While the score showed the Bruins were blown out in Game 1, you knew that's not how the series would play out if you watched that game closely. Boston played much better than that score, and they've shown that as the series is tied at two.
Boston put up a good effort without their two top defensemen. Hampus Lindholm has missed the last two games but has participated in the morning skate, which could be a good sign for his Game 5 status. They would love him back as Charlie McAvoy will miss another game as he's still in Covid protocol.
Is it time to panic in Carolina? They've dominated the Bruins all season, as these were the first two wins Boston had against them this year. Before those games, the Canes outscored them 26-4 in five combined regular-season and playoff games.
The Canes play differently at home, and the crowd should be a significant factor. Tony Deangelo had some words to say about the Boston crowd, and he can try to brush it off if he wants, but the Garden crowd rattled the team in the Garden. Carolina will rebound in this game.
Leg 2: Carolina ML
Los Angles Kings (+190) vs. Edmonton Oilers (-225) O/U 6.5
(Puck Drop 10:07 p.m. ET)
The Kings continue to find answers to stop one of the league’s top offenses. Jonathan Quick was a perfect 31-for-31 in Game 4, and he's been terrific with a game average of +0.17 goals saved above expected.
The Oilers have an exceptional special-teams unit, but it did not do well in Game 4. While they were one of the best at converting the power play. In Game 4, LA dominated on the man-advantage and 5-on-5, just like they did in their Game 1 win.
Head coach Todd McLellan decided to switch up the forward lines and come out with a defensive-focused Trevor Moore/Phillip Danault/Carl Grundstrom line that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl did not have an answer to.
Mike Smith needs to continue to play well to keep the Oilers in this game. He's been on point with a .942 save percentage in this series with an average of +1.25 GSAx.
This is another series where the momentum seems to change continuously. It's been very physical, and that should continue in Game 5. I like how both goaltenders are playing, and it should keep the score low.
Leg 3: Under 6.5
Total parlay odds on DraftKings: +451
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