Game 3 is set to get underway in four different series in the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs on Friday night with some great betting angles to attack. Below, I give out my two best bets for Friday’s games.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Edmonton Oilers (-140) @ Los Angeles Kings (+120), o/u 6.5 (+100/-120)
The Los Angeles Kings return home with the series tied at 1-1 following Wednesday’s 6-0 loss to the Edmonton Oilers. The wrong team is favored in this matchup in what is a massive overreaction to a Game 2 score that looks way worse than it was.
Despite winning the game 6-0, the Oilers would only have won that game 58.3% of the time following 1000 game simulations by MoneyPuck.com. The reason for this outlier game was the way in which Edmonton scored their goals.
Draistail opened the scoring following a terrible penalty call which granted the Oilers a free power play. Nonetheless, it was a great shot and the Oilers went up 1-0.
After that goal, the Kings were the victims of horrific puck luck as two of the next three goals were scored on tips by both the Oilers and the Kings. At that point, it was 4-0 in the third and the game was over.
While this sounds like complaining, which it sort of is, the metrics back up this puck luck as the Oilers had just 3.41 expected goals for (xGF) while the Kings had 2.33 xGF. We should see some serious regression in Game 3 and a much closer outing, in which case we are getting great value in the Kings as a home underdog.
Los Angeles looked like the better team in Game 1, and quite frankly looked like it as well in Game 2 before the wheels fell off. Not only do I think Los Angeles will win Games 3 and 4 at home, I think they will win three in a row to knock out Edmonton in just 5 five games.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Kings ML (+120) 1 unit & 3-Way ML (+180) 0.25 units
Toronto Maple Leafs (-105) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-115), o/u 6.5 (+100/-120)
This series is now tied at 1-1 following Tampa Bay’s 5-3 victory in Toronto on Wednesday. Returning home, the Lightning will look to build upon the momentum created by their great performance in Game 2.
Amalie Arena has been great to the Lightning this season as they went 27-14 straight up on home ice. This rink is even tougher to play in during the playoffs for opposing teams as the Lightning went 9-3 last playoffs on home ice, ending the postseason with a six-game home win streak and a +18 goal differential over that stretch.
Andrei Vasilevskiy was much more himself in Game 2 as he stopped 31 of 34 shots for a 0.912 save percentage, posting a +0.07 goals saved above expected (GSAx). This is a marked improvement from Game 1, a game in which Vasilevskiy had a -0.3 GSAx as he allowed five goals on 31 shots for a 0.839 save percentage.
Game 2 was much more similar to Vasilevskiy’s season as a whole as he boasts a 0.916 save percentage and a +0.4 five-on-five GSAx per 60 minutes this year. Returning to home ice should only boost Vasilevskiy’s confidence even more, as Amalie Arena is a place where he has shined in the playoffs.
Last year in the playoffs, Vasilevskiy went 9-3 on home ice with an outstanding 0.940 save percentage. While Toronto punched Tampa Bay right in the mouth in Game 1, it feels as though they have awoken a sleeping giant.
Betting against Vasilevskiy on home ice during the playoffs is not a profitable venture, and Toronto could be in a lot of trouble as I think they will return home in Game 5 down 3-1 in the series.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Lightning ML (-115)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.