Game 4 is set to get underway in four different series in the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs on Monday with some great betting angles to attack. Below, I give out my two best bets for Monday’s games.
Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bet $10, Win $200 if Either Team Scores a Goal >>
Florida Panthers (-175) @ Washington Capitals (+140), o/u 6.5 (-125/+105)
The Florida Panthers will look to even up the series as they take on the Washington Capitals following Saturday’s 6-1 loss. We are getting tremendous value in the Panthers to the recency bias of the Capitals playing better than the Panthers thus far in the first round.
I am not taking anything away from the Capitals as they have played better hockey and definitely deserve to be up 2-1 in the series. That being said, the Panthers have been a better team all season and we should not be getting such a long number on their puck line in this contest.
Florida’s offense is due for an explosive outing as they are only averaging 2.67 goals scored per game thus far in the series. This season, the Panthers averaged 4.11 goals scored per game and ranked first in the league in five-on-five expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF).
While Florida’s offensive should positively regress, we should also expect some regression from the Capitals’ projected starting goaltender Ilya Samsonov. Through his two appearances in this series, Samsonov has produced a 0.979 save percentage and a game average of +1.5 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
Both of these are leaps above Samsonov’s season-long performance, and I do not believe It is sustainable against the best offense in the league. This season, Samsonov possessed a mere 0.896 save percentage and a -0.31 five-on-five GSAx per 60 minutes.
Best Bet: Florida Panthers -1.5 (+140)
New York Rangers (-105) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (-115), o/u 6 (-115/-105)
The Pittsburgh Penguins are set to host the New York Rangers in Game 4 following Saturday’s 7-4 win. Saturday’s game was yet another high-scoring affair between these two teams as they have gone over the total in each of the first three games.
However, I expect regression to hit in Game 4. New York’s starting goaltender and Vezina-trophy favorite Igor Shesterkin was pulled in Game 3 after allowing four goals on 15 shots for a 0.733 save percentage.
This performance is a massive outlier for Shesterkin and he should be able to bounce back well in Game 4. Following games where he allowed four or more goals in the regular season, Shesterkin boasted a 0.930 save percentage.
On the other hand, I also expect the Penguins’ defense to pick It up. The Penguins boasted one of the best blue lines during the season as Pittsburgh ranks sixth in the league in five-on-five expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA).
They are also due for some positive regression in Game 4 as the Penguins have allowed an average of four goals per game thus far in the series. During the regular season, Pittsburgh allowed an average of just 2.71 goals scored per game.
Best Bet: Rangers/Penguins u6 (-105)
Best of luck!
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.
Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.