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U.S. Open 2022: Women’s Semifinals Preview and Prediction

by September 7, 2022
Caroline Garcia

Similarly to what is happening on the Men’s side, many firsts and history are being made in the Women’s Draw at the U.S. Open. Ons Jabeur and Caroline Garcia are first-time semifinalists at the U.S. Open. Jabeur is looking for a place in consecutive Grand Slam finals after finishing runner-up at Wimbledon.

In addition, world No. 1 Iga Swiatek became the first Polish woman to reach a U.S. Open semifinal in the Open Era. In contrast, No. 7 seed Aryna Sabalenka is the lone player of the final four who can say they had reached this point before, as she was a semifinalist at Flushing Meadows just last year.

Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the two Women’s semifinal matches at the 2022 U.S. Open.

Ons Jabeur vs. Caroline Garcia Prediction

Not many of the final four competitors at the U.S. Open have looked more impressive than No. 17 Caroline Garcia. Garcia has not dropped a set in any of her five matches thus far and has not even been pushed more than 6-4 in any set. Garcia’s latest three wins have come against former Grand Slam champion Bianca Andreescu and followed that up with wins against two Americans, No. 29 seed Alison Riske and No. 12 seed Coco Gauff. It should not be understated how impressive those two victories were, given that the crowds were massively against her. Garcia prevented Gauff from becoming the youngest American woman to reach the semifinals at the U.S. Open since Serena Williams did it at age 17 in 1999.

Jabeur has had to work slightly harder than Garcia because she lost one set to Shelby Rogers in the third round and has been pushed to tiebreaks on two other occasions. Somewhat concerning, Jabeur has had her serve broken ten times in the last three matches after being broken seven times through the first two matches against unseeded players. Thus, even though she had 29 winners compared to Tomljanovic’s 12 in the last match, she will likely need to serve more consistently to win this tournament.

Garcia has covered the game spread in her last 11 WTA main draw matches and is 16-1 SU in her previous 17 overall.

One cannot often get decent moneyline odds on a favorite betting tennis. As such, there is no need to get fancy with this pick, as Garcia has looked like the more polished and trusted player throughout this tournament, and we expect her to win outright.

Bet: Caroline Garcia ML (-155 at DraftKings)  

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Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka Prediction

It is hard to argue with the year Iga Swiatek has had. Her 55 wins already are the most since Ashleigh Barty’s 57 wins in 2019, and she is looking to continue the pursuit of her seventh WTA title this year, which would make her the first woman to do so since Serena Williams in 2014. She has now reached her third Grand Slam semifinal of the season and is 19-2 in majors this year.

One knock against Swiatek is that she has not been tested much thus far, as, before her match against Jessica Pegula, she had not faced a top-50 opponent in the tournament. However, her straight-set win over Pegula was her eighth consecutive straight-set victory over a top-10 opponent.

Swiatek benefitted from some nervy serving by Pegula, who won just 48% of her first serve points and 25% on her second serve. Iga makes players uncomfortable with her athleticism. She hits the ball heavy, but Swiatek mixed it up nicely on Pegula, who consistently prefers to hit a flat ball.

Sabalenka is a more versatile player than Pegula and has not had the service struggles that the American had in her last match. Sabalenka is in great form and got off the court quickly in her quarterfinal win against Karolina Pliskova, wrapping up the first set in just 28 minutes. Swiatek owns a 3-1 head-to-head advantage over Sabalenka, but two of those wins were on clay, and they have split their two hard court meetings.

Sabalenka is the most formidable opponent Swiatek has faced thus far, and it will take Swiatek some time to adjust to Sabalenka’s power. That should allow the No. 7 seed to cover the game spread in this match.

Bet: Aryna Sabalenka +3.5 Games (-115 at DraftKings) 

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.