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U.S. Open Women’s Semifinals Match Odds, Picks & Betting Preview (2021)

by September 9, 2021
Aryna Sabalenka

The three previous Grand Slam tournaments of this calendar year have all done their part to display the unpredictability and parity of women’s tennis. Not to be outdone, the U.S. Open now boasts its own remarkable quartet of semifinalists. While two of the four remaining women were seeded in this year’s draw, none have won a Grand Slam title before. The fact that we will soon crown a new major champion only adds to the appeal of making some U.S. Open tennis betting picks.

The following is a betting preview for both of the U.S. Open women’s semifinals. Read on for the match odds, analysis, and betting picks to help get you ready for Thursday night’s tennis action.

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U.S. Open Women’s Semifinals Details

Date: Thursday, Sep. 9, 2021
Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium — Queens, NY
Start Time: 7 p.m. EST
Coverage: ESPN

U.S. Open Women’s Semifinals Betting Odds and Picks

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

(2) Aryna Sabalenka vs. Leylah Fernandez

Moneyline: Sabalenka: (-330) | Fernandez: (+260)
Games Spread: Sabalenka: -4.5 (+100) | Fernandez: +4.5 (-120)
Total Games: 20.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Aryna Sabalenka Background and Overview

For the second straight Grand Slam tournament, 23-year-old Aryna Sabalenka finds herself a part of the final four. After a disappointing Semifinals loss to Angelique Kerber at Wimbledon, the hard-hitting Sabalenka gets another crack at capturing her first major title under the bright lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium. The Belarusian has accumulated 10 total WTA titles to date. In addition to being seeded No. 2 in the U.S. Open draw, she is also ranked No. 2 in the world. A U.S. Open title could very well vault her to the top spot in the rankings following Ashleigh Barty’s early exit.

Despite facing off against three seeded players, Sabalenka has only dropped a single set on her way to the U.S. Open Women’s Semifinals. Her last three matches have seen her drop all of 16 games as she blew past each of 26-seed Danielle Collins, 15-seed Elise Mertens, and 8-seed (and this year’s French Open winner) Barbora Krejcikova. Sabalenka will look to overpower her upstart opponent in this semifinal match. It will be key for her to control her aggression and use it to her advantage.

Leylah Fernandez Background and Overview

Sports truly have a way of bringing out the underdog fan in all of us. The story of this year’s U.S. Open has been 19-year-old Canadian Leylah Fernandez. The teenager has but a single WTA tournament title to date, coming this past June at the Monterrey Open. Her world ranking entering the U.S. Open was No. 73, and her previous best showing at a Grand Slam was a trip to the Third Round of last year’s French Open. Yet, here Fernandez is in the U.S. Open Semifinals, just two wins from a major title. Given that she is an upstart, it is no surprise that she is a heavy tennis betting underdog against the No. 2 women’s player in the world.

What has made Fernandez’s run through the draw to the final four all the more astonishing is the level of competition she has faced. After a pair of straight-set wins in her first two matches, the Cinderella run truly began when Fernandez knocked off defending U.S. Open champ and 3-seed Naomi Osaka in the Third Round. Not only did she beat Osaka, but she apparently put her tennis career on an indefinite pause as well. Next, Fernandez rallied from down a set to defeat 16-seed Angelique Kerber, a multi-time Grand Slam winner. Fernandez again pulled off a shocking upset in the quarterfinals by outlasting 5-seed Elina Svitolina in a third set tiebreak to book her spot in the final four.

Match Prediction

Will the legend of Leylah Fernandez live on? While the young Canadian has proven fearless in rising to the occasion to knock off three of the top women’s players in the world, it’s tough to predict a fairy tale ending tonight. Not only is Aryna Sabalenka the highest-seeded opponent Fernandez has faced to date, but she is by far the most powerful. After wilting in her Wimbledon semifinal match following a strong start, Sabalenka also has recent experience on her side. The fact that she has not dropped a single set since the opening round further proves that she is on a mission. Sabalenka will advance to her first major final, and I don’t envision her being pushed deep in either set.

Best Bet: Under 20.5 Total Games (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

(17) Maria Sakkari vs. Emma Raducanu

Moneyline: Sakkari: (-145) | Raducanu: (+120)
Games Spread: Sakkari: -2.5 (-110) | Raducanu: +2.5 (-110)
Total Games: 21.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Maria Sakkari Background and Overview

For the second time this year, rising Greek star Maria Sakkari finds herself in the semifinals of a Grand Slam tournament. This U.S. Open run joins her semifinals appearance at the French Open as her two best showings ever in a major tournament. The 17-seed in the Open draw is currently No. 18 in the WTA rankings. Sakkari has just one career WTA title to date, but she has also won seven ITF tournaments. The 26-year-old keeps getting better and has slowly been becoming one to watch at every Grand Slam.

Much like Aryna Sabalenka, Sakkari has breezed through her matches in New York thus far despite facing some stiff competition. Her toughest test to date came in the Fourth Round against 6-seed Bianca Andreescu. Sakkari had to bounce back from losing a first-set tiebreak to win the match in three sets. This included winning a grueling tiebreak of her own in the second set with her back pressed against the wall. All told, that first set loss to Andreescu is the only set Sakkari has dropped through five U.S. Open matches. She sandwiched that hard-fought victory between extremely impressive straight-set wins over both 10-seed Petra Kvitova and 4-seed Karolina Pliskova.

Emma Raducanu Background and Overview

Leylah Fernandez may be garnering the hype and attention on social media, but she is not the only teenager in the U.S. Open Women’s Semifinals. In fact, she isn’t even the youngest woman left standing! That distinction belongs to 18-year-old British player Emma Raducanu. She has never won a singles title. She is ranked No. 150 in the world. Heck, she had to earn her spot in the U.S. Open draw via qualifying! And now here she is, two wins away from an improbably Grand Slam title. Raducanu has already made history by becoming the first qualifier ever to reach the final four at a Grand Slam in the Open Era. She will sail into the top-100 in the world rankings regardless of how her run in Flushing Meadows concludes.

Not only has Raducanu rattled off five straight wins to reach the U.S. Open semis, but she has been utterly dominant in doing so. While one could easily make the case that she has faced the weakest schedule thus far of the four semifinalists (only one seeded opponent), the fact that Raducanu has yet to drop a set is still astonishing. While her Fourth Round opponent, American Shelby Rogers, was not seeded in the draw, it was still considered a formidable test. Raducanu only lost three total games in a blowout victory. She then proceeded to blitz 11-seed Belinda Bencic in the Quarterfinals en route to a 6-3, 6-4 win. 

Match Prediction

Given how dominant she has been, the tennis betting market has been left with no choice but to respect Emma Raducanu ahead of this semifinal matchup. While she will go off as the underdog, the odds are a whole lot tighter than for the first women’s semifinal match. Depending on how one regards Maria Sakkari, there is tremendous betting value on this matchup. A strong argument can be made for laying the juice with the 17-seed in a simple moneyline wager. For those seeking a better payout, consider laying -1.5 sets with the favorite at +135. A games spread play on Sakkari also offers better value than the outright match line, and that is where we will go for our official pick.

Best Bet: Maria Sakkari -2.5 Games (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.

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