The UFC returns to primetime and Pay-Per-View this Saturday as the promotion heads back to T-Mobile Arena for a night of what should be great fights. Following the return of Nick Diaz and before the main event, two women flyweight will fight for the belt.
In one of the more lopsided (from an odd’s standpoint) co-mains in recent memory, let’s take a look where the value remains as fight night approaches.
Betting Profile: Lauren Murphy (15-4-0)
Last Five Fights
A former Invicta FC Bantamweight Champion, Lauren Murphy, will fight for a UFC belt for the first time in her career as she comes into this one on a winning streak. Having taken out some heavy hitters along the way, most recently Joanne Calderwood in June at UFC 263, this will be Murphy’s fourth PPV card in five fights.
A Brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Murphy is a flyweight who can also strike, coming into this fight with landing 3.95 stikes per minute (vs. 3.02) though absorbing even more at 4.25 (vs. 1.99).
Betting Profile: Valentina Shevchenko (21-3-0)
Last Five Fights
For current champion Valentina Shevchenko, a seven-fight win streak is on the line Saturday night as she looks to defend her belt for the seventh straight time. Having not lost since September 2017 (via SD vs. Amanda Nunes), Shevchenko has put on master class after master class in striking and stamina.
The all-time record holder in the division in wins, KO/TKO wins, title fight wins, and a litany of in-fight metrics; it’s easy to see why she is such a heavy favorite in his one. Notably, in this matchup itself, Shevchenko holds 10% or higher edges across the board including significant strikes (51%), takedown averages per 15 minutes (2.64), and takedown accuracy (63%).
Simply put, there’s no one else for Shevchenko to fight in this division. The #2 pound-for-pound woman in the world will very likely get the job done once again in this one. It’s just a matter of how and when. The market agrees, having seen her go from -800 at open to as high as -1700 at some spots.
I’m looking for a splash win in the co-main of this one with a revenge fight vs. Amanda Nunes potentially lurking. I like for Shevchenko to handle business early and get out of this one largely unscathed.
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