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This Saturday will mark the fifth weekend in a row that we’ve had UFC cards. Although we’ll get a break from it next Saturday, the action will ramp up big time in July as we move to Fight Island.
For now, we’re looking at UFC on ESPN 12 with a card headlined by Dustin Poirier and Dan Hooker. While that’s the main event of the evening, in this article, we’re going to break down the Mickey Gall versus Mike Perry showdown. Perry is a sizable favorite in this spot but
Mike Perry (13-6) vs Mickey Gall (6-2)
Taking a look at the action at FanDuel, money has been steady on Gall.
“Gall opened a +192 dog against -240 for Perry on June 12. There has been a steady move towards the favorite here with Perry now -350, while Gall is available at +270,” said Kevin Hennessy, Publicity Director at FanDuel Sportsbook. “While Perry to win by KO has got the most action (-145), some bettors are putting faith in Galls’ chin to hold up. Perry to win by decision at +460 is the biggest prop liability.”
Two fighters in need of a win will clash in this bout as Gall has dropped two of his last four while Perry has lost five of seven. What does it say about Gall that Perry has lost five of seven and is still a massive -350 favorite? That’s clearly not a good sign.
The concern with Perry here is that he might simply be breaking down. A brawler with some excellent knockouts on his resume, his path to victory is mostly to stand and trade. We’ve seen that when he goes to grappling, he gets smoked (see Donald Cerrone), so he has to keep his fights standing to win. However, that also hasn’t worked for him recently as Vicente Luque rearranged his face/nose and beat him at UFC Fight Night 156 and then Perry was easily knocked out in the first round by Geoff Neal at UFC 245. So why exactly would anyone want to lay -350 with him in this spot?
Well, the answer to that has to do with Gall, who has really shown nothing recently in his UFC career. He had some early success but recent wins over George Sullivan and Salim Touhari aren’t exactly inspiring. A 37-year-old Diego Sanchez easily took care of him at UFC 235, knocking him out in the second round last year.
The question here is what can Gall do with his grappling? If he can take down Perry, he is going to have a shot to win this bout – better than what the odds suggest. If he’s going to get stifled in his attempts, as Sanchez easily did, then Gall is going to be in trouble. He has never won by knockout and only once won by decision.
Perry was dumb enough to grapple with Cerrone and if he has learned anything, he is not going to grapple with Gall. All he has to do is stymie some takedowns and just punch Gall in the face when he is aggressive. That’s really all there is to it.
I’m not a huge fan of laying all the juice with Perry given his recent track record. Instead, I’ll bet him to win via knockout, which drops this to -145. Also, it’s worth noting that FanDuel has a Victory Insurance promo they are running, so if we bet Perry to win via knockout and he wins by decision, we’ll get a refund up to $50. That gives us a little bit of protection.
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