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UFC Paris Odds, Picks & Predictions: Robert Whittaker vs. Marvin Vettori (9/3)

by September 3, 2022
Marvin Vettori

Let’s check out our top odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night Paris event.

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Betting Profile: Robert Whittaker (24-6-0)

Last Five Fights (L-W-W-W-L)

Joining the UFC via the Ultimate Fighter in 2012, Whittaker has fought a who’s-who of the middleweight division along the way, holding the belt briefly in 2017 following a decision win over Yoel Romero. After a subsequent rematch vs. Romero, another win, Whittaker ran into Israel Adesanya in October 2019, who snatched his belt via KO/TKO and has held it ever since.

In his last time in the octagon, Whittaker got his chance at redemption in February, losing once again, this time via unanimous decision. Coming into this fight, Whittaker does hold the striking edge, with .58 knockdowns per 15 minutes and a .1 higher significant strikes landed per 15 minutes at 4.45.

Betting Profile: Marvin Vettori (18-5-1)

Last Five Fights (W-L-W-W-W)

Following a slow start to his UFC career, which began in 2016 and saw Vettori go 2-2-1, which included a split decision loss to Adesanya, he proceeded to rattle off five straight wins before running into Adesanya for the second time in June of last summer. Since then, Vettori did get back into the winner’s column following a decision win of his own vs. Paulo Costa in October.

Coming into this fight, Vettori does hold a big edge on the ground, with a .6 submission average per 15 minutes (vs 0.0), as well as a 2.04 takedown average per 15 minutes (vs. 81). It’s also worth noting that like Gane in the main event, Vettori has a propensity to start slow and draw fights out, with his average fight time being 3.31 rounds despite being in just one five-round fight in his career.

Bottom Line

Going back to 2016, both of these fighters have just two losses each, both of which have come against middleweight champ Adesanya. While it certainly makes sense why Whittaker is the favorite here, given his history of taking care of strong opponents as of late in Kelvin Gastelum and Jared Cannonier, I’m not so sure the odds fit the matchup here.

With his only two losses in his last 10 fights coming vs. Adesanya, Vettori has taken out the likes of Kevin Holland and Paulo Costa, two killers in their own rights and legit title contenders. If he can get this fight to the ground, he has a clear path to victory, making this fight more of a coin flip than the odds currently imply.

Best Bet: Marvin Vettori (+195 via DraftKings)

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