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Under-the-Radar College Football Bets: Week 3 (2019)

by September 11, 2019

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Who’s up for a little bit of chalk this week? We’re laying points all over the place, expecting a few blowouts in Week 3. We’re coming off a 1-2 week where our two losing teams (Washington and Florida State) laid absolute eggs in the second halves after looking good early. Let’s see if we can get back on the winning track.

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Kansas Jayhawks at Boston College Eagles
Odds: Boston College -21 at PointsBet

The point spread here is not a reflection of what sportsbooks think about the Eagles. They’re a fairly ordinary team which is probably not going to achieve very much over the course of the 2019 season. They have some nice parts and they should go to a decent bowl. The reason for this massive point spread is who they’re playing: Kansas. The Jayhawks barely defeated Indiana State, an FCS school, in Week 1 and then lost to Coastal Carolina of the Sun Belt Conference at home in Week 2. Kansas only scored seven points against Coastal Carolina and struggled to score for most of the game against Indiana State.

If a team can score just seven points against Coastal Carolina at home, it will not come remotely close to beating Boston College on the road. This should indeed be a Boston College runaway. The Eagles will cover the spread and win by close to 30 points. Expect this line to climb higher as the week progresses.

Pick: Eagles -21

Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers
Odds: Ohio State -15.5

The key unit in this game is the Ohio State defense. You know Ohio State’s offense has the athletes and talent to score a large number of points. They could play poorly on offense in this game and still score at least 28 points. At the end of the day, the Buckeyes will probably score somewhere in the mid-30s, possibly the low 40s. The real question is if the Ohio State defense can stand tall and smother the Indiana offense.

Ohio State was very vulnerable and inconsistent last season on defense as we saw them give up 49 points in a loss to Purdue and were similarly gashed and exploited at Maryland. If they regress on defense in this game, they probably won’t lose outright, but it probably will enable Indiana to stay close enough to cover the spread. If Ohio State’s defense is on top of its game and does not allow Indiana to get any offensive flow, the Buckeyes will cover the spread.

Based on the first two performances of the regular season, Ohio State probably will thrive on defense and cover the spread in this Big Ten road game.

Pick: Buckeyes -15.5

Arizona State Sun Devils at Michigan State Spartans
Odds: Michigan State -12.5

The Spartans were a bit sluggish offensively in their opener as they beat Tulsa by a modest 28-7 scoreline. They only had three points in the second half and finished the game with a modest 303 yards. However, they got things going against Western Michigan and blew them out 51-17, indicating Week 1 was just their way of easing into the season.

In this spot, they’ll get an Arizona State team that struggled with Sacramento State last week. The Sun Devils actually only beat Kent State 30-7 in Week 1 and then posted a 19-7 win over Sacramento State in Week 2. The Sun Devils didn’t get their first touchdown of the game until there was 4:42 of the fourth quarter.

I expect Michigan State’s top-notch defense to suffocate the Sun Devils, who are just 13-of-35 on third-down conversions so far. If that’s what they’ve done at home to two cupcakes, they’ll have a lot of short drives this weekend.

Pick: Michigan State -12.5

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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.

College Football