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Understanding Coincidence When Placing NFL Futures (2022)

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by August 22, 2022
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As the calendar shifts to August, the anticipation builds for the new NFL season. In the coming weeks, a flock of bettors will begin to place futures on the upcoming NFL season— and for many, it is necessary to advise caution when doing so.

In this era, the breadth of data available is enough to justify any wager prior to the start of the season. It can be difficult to distinguish the noisy stats/trends from the actionable ones.

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No team has repeated as champion of the NFC East since the Eagles of 2004. This fact has been repeated ad nauseam by notable media outlets and has been cited by some as additional reasoning for fading the reigning NFC East champion, the Dallas Cowboys.

While trivially interesting, the fact that no team has repeated as division champs since 2004 is merely coincidental and has no influence on the outcome of any game this coming season.

NFC East Odds to Win

Dallas New York Philadelphia Washington
Vegas Odds +140 +800 +185 +575
Implied Probability 41.67 % 11.11 % 35.09 % 14.81 %


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