Unfortunately, another break-even week leaves the season ledger at 11-11 and a 0.33-unit profit. Last week, the final playoff spot was secured. Therefore, all four games have nothing on the line. So, this week requires a lot of guesswork and uncertainty. As a result, the top bet leans into the uncertainty, hooking three picks together for a parlay on which gamblers can place a small wager while maintaining a betting interest.
This three-game parlay doesn’t include any big chalk. As a result, it has a tasty +521 payout if it hits. The first leg is an under with opposing struggling offenses.
In the previous two weeks, the Stallions have scored 10 points and 15 points. Meanwhile, in the last three weeks, the Bandits have scored 13 points, 13 points and six points. Birmingham’s elite defense should suppress Tampa Bay’s offense. According to FOX Sports, the Stallions’ defense has allowed the second-fewest points per game (15.9). The Bandits’ defense has also done a stellar job, holding opponents to only 18.9 points per game. Finally, Birmingham might rest some starters with an eye on their playoff game next week.
The second leg of the three-team parlay is the Panthers outright beating the lowly Maulers. Pittsburgh has scored a USFL-low 126 points, getting outscored by a USFL-leading 84 points. In addition, they might have reached a new low last week. Sure, they lost by just one point to the playoff-bound Stars. However, the final score lacks context. The Stars had nothing to play for, and they started backup quarterback K.J. Costello for the entire second half.
The Panthers haven’t been any great shakes, evidenced by their 1-8 record. Still, they’ve been markedly better than the Maulers, getting outscored by 37 points in their nine games. Additionally, Michigan’s only win was a Week 3 beatdown of the Maulers, shutting them out 24-0.
The final leg is Houston getting 3.5 points against the Breakers. The Gamblers ended Birmingham’s undefeated season last week, winning their second game of the year. Houston has won two games and lost three contests by precisely one point. Sadly, they lost by seven points to the Breakers in their previous meeting.
However, New Orleans has sewn up their playoff spot, potentially leading to resting regulars. In addition, the health of their quarterbacks is in question. Kyle Sloter was replaced after committing a couple of turnovers last week, but backup Zach Smith exited with a left shoulder injury. Sloter re-entered and completed the game, despite suffering a foot injury in the third quarter. Smith was reportedly healthy enough to return last week but didn’t. Regardless, both quarterbacks might be at less than 100%.
The Gamblers are a legitimate threat to outright beat a Breakers squad that could be going through the motions in a tune-up for the playoffs. Still, getting the 3.5 points is a desirable cushion and drops the odds of the parlay from +697 to a still robust +521. Taking the Gamblers on the moneyline in the parlay is fine if you want to get greedy.
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