There are only two weeks left in the USFL regular season. Thankfully, after keeping the season top bets even by picking a single game wager incorrectly but nailing a two-pick parlay, the 10-10 top bets have generated a 0.33-unit profit. Hopefully, this week’s top bets will move the profit further into the black.
The line is light for the favored Breakers. Simply, the Breakers have been the considerably better team and trounced the Bandits in Week 2. When these two South Division foes met in Week 2, New Orleans beat Tampa Bay 34-3.
Additionally, the Breakers have had a much better scoring differential, outscoring their opponents by 38 points. Comparatively, the Bandits have been outscored by 19 points. Finally, according to football data presenter Anthony Reinhard, it’s not even close in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play.
USFL EPA/play for each offense and defense with two regular season games remaining! pic.twitter.com/lxVzqnDsPY
— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhurdler) June 9, 2022
It’s hard to trust the big favorites destroying their opponents, with the Generals, Stallions and Stars already locked into playoff spots. Nevertheless, they’re much better teams than their opponents. The Panthers, Gamblers and Maulers have combined for a 3-21 record, with each team earning their lone win against one another.
Further, they’ve been outscored by their opponents by 35 points, 31 points and 83 points, respectively. Only Houston’s defense has earned a favorable EPA/play out of the three bottom dwellers.
The Generals, Stallions and Stars might exercise caution and throttle back the usage of some of their integral players. Regardless, USFL rosters aren’t deep enough to rest everyone. Also, they’ll theoretically want to maintain some continuity and rhythm approaching the playoffs and their reserves might be able to beat the 3-21 trio outright anyway. Hooking the three moneyline favorites together yields an adequate -115 line.
However, getting greedy and tacking on the under 47.0 for the Generals versus Panthers game boosts the line to +257, an enticing proposition. If the Generals have their druthers, they’ll run the ball down Michigan’s throat, win the time-of-possession battle and go home with a win. Why shouldn’t they be expected to do so?
According to FOX Sports, the Generals have rushed for the most yards per game (258.6) and have tied for the fewest points allowed per game (16.0). The Panthers are also a run-centric team, ranking second in rushing yards per game (152.5), enhancing the odds of a clock-chewing contest.
In addition, the previous meeting is a check in the pros column for taking the under. The Generals beat the Panthers 10-6. The teams combined for 60 rush attempts and only 54 pass attempts. Finally, while Michigan’s previous five games have resulted in at least 47 combined points, New Jersey’s games have totaled 47 points or fewer in six of their last seven games.
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