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Will D.K. Metcalf Go Over/Under 850.5 Receiving Yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)

by July 3, 2020

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Not all NFL futures wagering has to be in the form of Super Bowl bets or season win totals. A popular alternative to team futures is betting on season-long player props. Sportsbooks everywhere post various amounts of these props. The most common offerings include total yardage (passing, rushing, receiving, or any combination involving two or more of these categories) and total touchdowns.

Unlike futures wagers on a player to lead the league in a statistical category, individual player props isolate a specific player’s situation, given that it is a bet of whether they will go over or under the set line. A deep dive into the various player props available is sure to uncover a few offerings worthy of a wager. One such player prop that I like for the 2020-21 NFL season is D.K. Metcalf’s receiving yards.

Check out all of our 2020 NFL Player Prop Bets here.

D.K. Metcalf Receiving Yards Over/Under Prop Bet

  • Over 850.5 (-110)
  • Under 850.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Check out all of our 2020 NFL Player Prop Bets here.

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D.K. Metcalf Statistical Breakdown

D.K. Metcalf burst onto the NFL scene as a rookie in 2019-20. At 6’ 4” and 229 lbs., it is no surprise that the muscle-bound physical specimen was able to assert himself in his maiden professional season. He promptly eclipsed 60 yards receiving in each of his first three NFL games and became a relative model of consistency throughout the entire season.

Metcalf failed to reach the 40-yard mark only five times, with most of his outings posting yardage totals well above that threshold. His best statistical showing came in a 6-reception, 123-yard, 1-touchdown performance in early November. Metcalf’s final season numbers, which included 900 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, are shown in the image below.

While those numbers aren’t bad, I’m a firm believer that they are just scratching the surface of Metcalf’s full potential as an NFL receiver. Where Metcalf will need to improve is in his catch rate. The math of 58 receptions on 100 targets translates simply to 58%. That number is much lower than what is typically desired from NFL receivers. If Metcalf improves on this aspect of his game, his yardage total will only increase.

D.K. Metcalf Season Outlook

When it comes to the Seattle Seahawks’ offense, the 2020-21 outlook for Metcalf is bursting with optimism. One of the biggest knocks on Seattle’s offense has been their unwillingness to turn Russell Wilson loose until late in games. While running the football to establish a physical advantage and maintain a balance in play-calling makes perfect sense, Wilson and the passing attack have repeatedly proven to be the unit’s strength. I’m a believer that coach Pete Carroll and coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will make adjustments accordingly for the upcoming season, leading to more pass attempts and more opportunities for all Seattle pass-catchers.

The Seahawks receiving corps returns the same key pieces from a year ago. On paper, Metcalf has to still be considered the team’s WR2 behind Tyler Lockett for now. But given the difference in physical attributes between Metcalf and the 5’ 10” Lockett, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a passing of the torch as soon as this season. Other competition for targets from Wilson will come from the tight end position, where free agent signee Greg Olsen joins the established Will Dissly.

D.K. Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop Bet Pick

With the anticipation of Metcalf improving on what was a fantastic rookie season, I like the over on this prop bet. The line of 850.5 falls below Metcalf’s 2019-20 output of 900 receiving yards, suggesting a decline. I would much rather back continued growth and improvement from the young talent than I would a regression.

So long as Metcalf has one of the best quarterbacks in the game throwing him the football in Russell Wilson, it’s hard to make a strong case to pick against him. While the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the NFL offseason into chaos, there is no denying that Metcalf and Wilson should have a better rapport in this, their second year working together than last. More targets along with an improved catch rate lead me to believe Metcalf should sail over the posted line without much difficulty. It is easily one of my favorite season player props on the board.

Shopping Lines

One final point that I want to touch on is the importance of shopping the lines when betting on NFL player props. As is the case with many season-long player prop lines, there are major discrepancies in D.K. Metcalf’s receiving yardage line on the betting market. While a few yards may not seem like much in the grand scheme of an NFL season, it could wind up being the difference between a winning and losing ticket. Metcalf’s receiving yards line of 850.5 at DraftKings is lower than those offered at several other shops. In some cases, the difference is a full 50 yards.

The Pick: D.K. Metcalf OVER 850.5 Receiving Yards at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.

DraftKings, NFL