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Wimbledon Men’s Final Match Odds, Picks & Betting Preview (2021)

by July 10, 2021
Novak Djokovic

A thrilling two weeks of tennis at the All England Lawn Tennis Club is set to conclude on Sunday with the Wimbledon Men’s Final. After impressive runs through the draw and victories in their respective semifinal matches, Novak Djokovic and Matteo Berrettini are set to face off from a Grand Slam championship. With 19 major titles on his career resume, Djokovic is certainly no stranger to the bright lights of a final. Meanwhile, this marks the furthest Berrettini has gone at any Grand Slam. He will look to win his first major championship on Centre Court at Wimbledon. 

The article offers a full betting preview for the Wimbledon Men’s Final. Included are the betting odds, player analysis, historical trends, and best picks for Saturday’s championship match.

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Wimbledon Men’s Final Details

Date: Sunday, Jul. 11, 2021
Venue: Centre Court — London, EN
Start Time: 9 a.m. EST
Coverage: ESPN

Wimbledon Men’s Final Betting Odds and Picks

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline: Djokovic: (-480) | Berrettini: (+370)
Games Spread: Djokovic: -5.5 (-103) | Berrettini: +5.5 (-118)
Total Games: 37.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Novak Djokovic Background and Overview

It’s far from his first major final, but Sunday’s Wimbledon Men’s title match is a big one for Novak Djokovic. The No. 1 ranked player in the world continues to show his dominance of the rest of the ATP Tour. He now seeks to win his third Grand Slam of the calendar year and the 20th of his career. Djokovic has won each of the last two Wimbledon tournaments in 2018 and ‘19 and hotels five previous championships overall. Can he earn a sixth on Sunday and set up a shot for a 2021 season slam at the U.S. Open later this summer?

In some ways, Djokovic got a bit more than he bargained for in his Semifinals match against Canadian Denis Shapovalov. While he did manage to win the match in straight sets, Djokovic had to work for all three-set wins. After winning a first-set tiebreaker, Djoker claimed the next two by identical 7-5 scores. Shapovalov certainly pushed him, but the best men’s tennis player in the world was ready for the challenge. With the win, Djokovic maintains the stat of only dropping one set in this entire Wimbledon tournament. Given that it was the very first set he played, Djokovic has effectively won 18 straight sets coming into Sunday’s Final.

Matteo Berrettini Background and Overview

25-year-old Matteo Berrettini has played a phenomenal Wimbledon tournament on his way to reaching a Grand Slam Final for the first time in his career. The Italian is currently ranked No. 9 in the world and was seeded seventh in this Wimbledon draw. A powerful hitter with court-covering athleticism, many believe Berrettini capable of giving Djokovic the toughest test he has seen all tournament long. He has five previous ATP titles and now has a chance to add a sixth in the form of a major championship. Grass has clearly emerged as his preferred playing surface. He carries an 11-0 record on grass into Sunday’s final.

While he can’t claim to have won 18 consecutive sets, Berrettini has yet to be pushed beyond a fourth set in any of his six Wimbledon matches. Berrettini was actually disappointed with his performance in a four-set Quarterfinals victory over 16-seed and sound grass-court player Felix Auger Aliassime. He responded in a big way by dominating the first two sets of Friday’s Semifinals matchup against 14-seed Hubert Hurkacz. After losing the third set in a tiebreaker, he bounced back to break Hurkacz’s serve and claim the fourth set. Berrettini is young and hungry. Now, the only thing standing between him and a Grand Slam title is the best tennis player in the world.

Novak Djokovic vs. Matteo Berrettini Head-to-Head History

Novak Djokovic and Matteo Berrettini have only faced off head-to-head twice before Sunday’s Wimbledon Final. The most recent came just last month, as Djokovic bested Berrettini in four sets in the French Open Quarterfinals. The other previous meeting was on a hard indoor surface at the Nitto ATP Finals in London back in 2019. Djokovic won 12 of the 15 games played en route to a dominant victory. This Wimbledon Final will be the first head-to-head meeting between the two players on grass.

Wimbledon Men’s Final Prediction

Novak Djokovic has been seemingly unbeatable in this Wimbledon tournament and really the entire 2021 calendar year thus far. The fact that he had to work as hard as he did in Friday’s semifinal was noteworthy. The tennis betting odds list Matteo Berrettini as a 4-1 underdog ahead of Sunday’s Wimbledon Final, exactly half of the length of the odds Denis Shapovalov faced in Friday’s Semifinal. 

While Berrettini has put on a great display of tennis both at the All England Lawn Tennis Club and in his previous tournament to kick off the grass-court season, beating Djokovic is a whole different animal. Berrettini should have what it takes to push Djoker throughout the match and win one set. Anything beyond that would be a surprise. As bettors, we’ll look to make our picks accordingly and go over on the total games line as our best match bet. All told, look for Djokovic to capture his 20th career Grand Slam title on Sunday.

Best Match Bet: Over 37.5 Total Games (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Other Picks to Consider

Match Correct Score: Djokovic 3-1 (+260)
Total Sets: Over 3.5 (-125)
Alternate Game Spread: Djokovic -6.5 (+135)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.