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Wimbledon Women’s Final Match Odds, Picks & Betting Preview (2021)

by July 9, 2021
Ashleigh Barty

After two grueling weeks of grass court tennis featuring the best women’s players in the world, it all comes down to this. The 2021 Wimbledon Women’s Final features two talented women who are eyeing their first career Grand Slam title. World No. 1 and top-seeded Ashleigh Barty will look to solidify her spot atop the rankings when she faces 8-seed Karolina Pliskova. Both were extremely impressive in their respective semifinal matches on Thursday. Only one can leave the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club a champion.

The article offers a full betting preview for the Wimbledon Women’s Final. Included are the betting odds, player analysis, historical trends, and best picks for Saturday’s championship match.

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Wimbledon Women’s Final Details

(1) Ashleigh Barty vs. (8) Karolina Pliskova
Date: Saturday, Jul. 10, 2021
Venue: Centre Court — London, EN
Start Time: 9 a.m. EST
Coverage: ESPN

Wimbledon Women’s Final Betting Odds and Picks

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline: Barty: (-245) | Pliskova: (+200)
Games Spread: Barty: -3.5 (-115) | Pliskova: +3.5 (-106)
Total Games: 21.5 — Over: (-122) | Under: (+102)

Ashleigh Barty Background and Overview

Like Thursday’s semifinal, Ashleigh Barty is a commanding tennis betting favorite ahead of the Wimbledon Final. She certainly lived up to expectations in her first-ever appearance in the final four at Wimbledon. Against three-time Grand Slam champion Angelique Kerber, Barty was simply the better player. She hit eight aces and rallied from a second set deficit to win 6-3, 7-6. Barty rattled off 11 straight points to break Kerber’s serve in that second set and ultimately drag it into a tiebreaker. After winning the first six points of the tiebreak, she was able to close out the victory.

While Barty is yet to win a Grand Slam, the talent and adaptability of her game speak for herself. She is a player who brings a full arsenal of shots to the table. This enables her to perform well on any and all court surfaces. Her power was on full display against Kerber, as it has been throughout her run through the Wimbledon draw. While several points seemed to come easily for the 25-year-old Australian, she forced the 2018 Wimbledon champion to work for any and everything. Barty figures to have a power advantage once again in Saturday’s final. 

Karolina Pliskova Background and Overview

This marks the second appearance in a Grand Slam final for Karolina Pliskova. The Czech Republic native also made it to the final match at the 2016 U.S. Open. Like Barty, she will look to capture her first career major title on Saturday. Pliskova got all she could handle from 2-seed Aryna Sabalenka in the Semifinals. The power-hitting 2-seed took the opening set, but Pliskova did more than keep her composure. Her ball-striking was exceptional on Thursday. She was able to capitalize on nearly every point that she could generate a back-and-forth volley on. She hit several clean returns on Sabalenka’s serve, broke her twice over the final two sets, and came away a 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 winner.

Pliskova will need similar reflexes and accuracy in Saturday’s Women’s Final. She will once again have to contend with a powerful serve. She handled the speed to perfection on Thursday, winning 34 receiving points. The 29-year-old and former World No. 1 may be one of the calmest players on tour today. Despite being a sizable tennis betting underdog, Pliskova cannot be counted out ahead of Saturday’s championship match.

Ashleigh Barty vs. Karolina Pliskova Head-to-Head History

Ashleigh Barty and Karolina Pliskova have faced off seven times before Saturday’s Wimbledon Final. Barty holds a 5-2 advantage in the previous meetings, including wins in each of the last three. The most recent tangle came at this year’s Stuttgart Open. Barty claimed the victory on the clay court surface in three sets. Each of the last two meetings and four of the total seven has gone a full three sets. 

The two have met split their two previous meetings on grass, with Pliskova winning the most recent showdown at Nottingham back in 2016. They have also had one previous encounter at a Grand Slam tournament. Pliskova prevailed in their Fourth Round match at the 2018 U.S. Open, winning in straight sets. 

Wimbledon Women’s Final Prediction

While Barty was extremely impressive against a former Wimbledon champion in the semis, one can’t help but wonder if the tennis betting odds are discounting the performance of Pliskova a bit. Barty deserves to be the favorite as the top seed, but a 2-1 return on the underdog is quite a discrepancy. History would seem to indicate that Saturday’s Wimbledon Women’s Final will be a back-and-forth affair. Although Barty holds the wins advantage in their former meetings, seemingly every match has been close. 

It’s worth noting that even as Barty rallied for a straight-sets win in the Semifinals, the total games still went over 21.5. Look to follow the same blueprint when it comes to the best bet for the final. Bettors can also up their payout by going over 22.5 games at +108 odds. Kerber had the Wimbledon track record, but Pliskova’s game is a step ahead at this point in her career. Nothing figures to come easily for either player on Saturday.

Best Match Bet: Over 21.5 Total Games (-122 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Other Picks to Consider

Set Spread: Karolina Pliskova +1.5 (-148)
Total Number of Tiebreaks: Over 0.5 (+220)
Listed Set Winner: Karolina Pliskova to Win Set 1 or Set 2 (+165 and +170, respectively)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.