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Wimbledon Women’s Semifinals Match Odds, Picks & Betting Preview (2021)

by July 7, 2021
Aryna Sabalenka

The first edition of Wimbledon in two years is in the home stretch. It has been a spectacular week and a half of tennis at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club thus far. Given the women’s semifinal matchups that we have on tap for Thursday, the highlights and thrills are likely far from over.

All four Wimbledon women’s semifinalists won their respective quarterfinal matches in straight sets. 2021 has been a year marked by upsets and unpredictability in women’s tennis. While there has certainly been some of that at Wimbledon, the top two seeds in the draw have successfully reached the final four. Top-seed and current world No. 1 Ashleigh Barty will tangle with former Wimbledon champion Angelique Kerber in the first semifinal. Then, 2-seed Aryna Sabalenka will play her first-ever Grand Slam semifinal match when she takes on former U.S. Open winner Karolina Pliskova. 

The following is a betting preview for both of the Wimbledon women’s semifinals. Read on for the match odds, analysis, and betting picks to help get you ready for Thursday’s tennis action.

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Wimbledon Women’s Semifinals Details

Date: Thursday, Jul. 8, 2021
Venue: Centre Court — London, EN
Start Time: 8:30 a.m. EST
Coverage: ESPN

Wimbledon Women’s Semifinals Betting Odds and Picks

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

(1) Ashleigh Barty vs. (25) Angelique Kerber

Moneyline: Barty: (-235) | Kerber: (+185)
Games Spread: Barty: -3.5 (-115) | Kerber: +3.5 (-115)
Total Games: 21.5 — Over: (-115) | Under: (-108)

Ashleigh Barty Background and Overview

Australian Ashleigh Barty has managed to hold onto the top spot in the world rankings despite this being her first trip to a Grand Slam final four this year. This likely has something to do with the sheer chaos that has been women’s tennis in 2021. Barty hopes to restore some order by parlaying her semifinal berth into her second career major championship. This marks her deepest run ever at Wimbledon, but the tennis betting odds still view her as a decisive favorite for Thursday’s match. Her ability to incorporate a variety of shots into her matches certainly gives her a shot.

Barty has only been extended to a third set in her run through the Wimbledon draw once. That came all the way back in the very first round against Carla Suarez Navarro. After losing a second set tiebreak, Barty steadied and cruised to a 6-1 third set win. She has only had to face one seeded player thus far but had little trouble with 14-seed Barbora Krejcikova in the Fourth Round. After dispatching fellow Aussie Ajla Tomljanovic in the Quarterfinals, Barty now turns her attention to a former Wimbledon champion.

Angelique Kerber Background and Overview

33-year-old Angelique Kerber is back in the Wimbledon women’s semifinals. Judging based on her post-match interview following Tuesday’s Quarterfinals action, she couldn’t be happier. Kerber previously won Wimbledon just three years ago in 2018. Paired with her Australian Open and U.S. Open titles from 2016, she is a three-time Grand Slam champion. She is only ranked No. 28 in the WTA world rankings at present, but Kerber has been very impressive during her latest Wimbledon run.

Kerber has been extended to a third set twice in her five matches of the tournament thus far. She outlasted Sara Sorribes Tormo in a back-and-forth Second Round affair before winning 12 of the final 13 games to come from behind against Aliaksandra Sasnovich in Round 3. Kerber took on a pair of highly-regarded women in both the Fourth Round and Quarterfinals. Even so, the German really seemed to breeze through both matches. After ousting American teenage sensation Coco Gauff, Kerber dominated 19-seed Karolina Muchova on Tuesday. Now two wins away from a second Wimbledon championship, Kerber is out to prove that her resurgence is for real.

Match Prediction

This sets up as a fascinating match between the current World No. 1 and a woman who held that ranking previously. Barty certainly has the talent to be a Wimbledon champion, but it’s worth noting that she has never been on this stage before. Meanwhile, Kerber knows all about playing in the second weekend at the All England Lawn Tennis Club. While some might consider her run to the semifinals a fluke, Kerber’s last two wins came against opponents that many believed had a shot to take home the Venus Rosewater Dish themselves.

Perhaps some should have seen Kerber’s resurgence coming before now. After all, she already captured a title this year, winning the Bad Homburg Open last month in her native Germany. At the current price points, it’s fair to say that the betting odds are underestimating her a bit. Barty is a deserving favorite, having won three singles titles this year in her own right. That said, Thursday’s semifinal is a whole different ball game. Bettors should consider taking a shot on Kerber outright as a +185 underdog. After all, she has won three of her five prior head-to-head matches against Barty. As for a less bold match prediction, look to play over on total games.

Best Bet: Over 21.5 (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

(2) Aryna Sabalenka vs. (8) Karolina Pliskova

Moneyline: Sabalenka: (-215) | Pliskova: (+170)
Games Spread: Sabalenka: -3.5 (-103) | Pliskova: +3.5 (-122)
Total Games: 21.5 — Over: (-122) | Under: (-103)

Aryna Sabalenka Background and Overview

Despite being the 2-seed in the Wimbledon draw and ranked No. 4 in the world, Aryna Sabalenka arrived at the All England Lawn Tennis Club with a massive monkey still on her back. After her comfortable win in Tuesday’s Quarterfinals match, she can finally breathe a sigh of relief. That win qualified Sabalenka for her first career Grand Slam semifinal appearance. The hard-hitting and fiery 23-year-old holds 10 career singles titles to her name. However, before this Wimbledon run, she had never gotten past the Fourth Round at any major. Having finally done so, she would undoubtedly love to ride the momentum all the way to a championship.

Momentum is a big thing when it comes to Sabalenka’s tennis. She certainly had a lot of it on Tuesday as she overpowered 21-seed Ons Jabeur in their Quarterfinals match. Sabalenka also took down 18-seed Elena Rybakina in the Fourth Round, giving her two high-quality wins in this tournament. The only time she was extended to a third set came in her second match. After dropping the opening set to Katie Boulter, Sabalenka gained composure to take the final two sets by identical 6-3 scores. 

Karolina Pliskova Background and Overview

While she can’t claim a Wimbledon championship on her resume like Angelique Kerber, 8-seed Karolina Pliskova is certainly the veteran competitor in this second semifinal matchup. Winner of 16 career singles titles, Pliskova is a former World No. 1 in her own right. She achieved that ranking back in 2017 on the heels of a runner-up finish at the U.S. Open and a semifinal appearance at the French Open. At 29 years old, she again finds herself within striking distance of that first Grand Slam championship. It has been a roller coaster 2021 season for Pliskova thus far, but a Wimbledon championship would cure all of that.

The Czech Republic native is the only women’s semifinalist who is yet to be taken to a third set in this tournament. That said, she has also benefitted from not facing a single-seeded opponent up until this point. Her most recent win was a 6-2, 6-2 steamrolling of upstart Viktorija Golubic in the Quarterfinals on Tuesday. Pliskova will be stepping up in competition in a big way when she meets Sabalenka on Thursday. 

Match Prediction

The key for Pliskova figures to be getting off to a quick start. With Sabalenka’s play often fueled or derailed by momentum, the tennis betting underdog cannot waste any time making things uncomfortable. Unfortunately, the power game of Sabalenka makes that a task much easier suggested than accomplished. Anyone who watched the Belarus native’s quarterfinal match on Tuesday had to come away thinking Sabalenka looks every bit the part of a Wimbledon champion. Unless the nerves of playing in her first Grand Slam semifinal get to her, it’s tough to bet against her after Tuesday’s display.

For further incentive to look towards the higher seed, it’s also worth noting that Sabalenka has beaten Pliskova in both of their prior head-to-head matchups. Bettors can attack this match in one of two ways with spread bets. Sabalenka, as a 3.5-game favorite, offers a solid return at -103 odds. But for our official pick, we’re going for an even bigger payout.

Best Bet: Aryna Sabalenka -1.5 Sets (+125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.

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