The WNBA is giving fans three games to enjoy on Memorial Day weekend today, starting with the Minnesota Lynx versus the Chicago Sky, followed by the Portland Fire versus the Toronto Tempo and ending with the Los Angeles Sparks versus the Las Vegas Aces. There is one thing that every game has in common - someone has to score first. Predicting WNBA first basket scorers is not easy because there are so many variables we can't account for. But that's also why the payout is pretty decent when you hit on a first basket prop. Here are my top picks for today's games.
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Saturday’s Best WNBA First Basket Scorers & Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky
Kamilla Cardoso is the obvious pick if you want to go with someone from the Sky. As the center, she'll be in a good position to rebound missed shots and get a quick basket on a put-back. With Rickea Jackson out for the season, Cardoso has the highest usage rate on the team at 22.9% and a 52.8% effective field-goal rate.
For Minnesota, Natasha Howard appears to be the best choice. Three players take more shots per game than she does, but Howard has the highest usage rate (27.1%) among Lynx shooters and an effective field-goal rate of 64.7%.
Howard and Cardoso have each recorded the first basket once this season.
Picks: Kamilla Cardoso (+380)/Natasha Howard (+750)
Portland Fire vs. Toronto Tempo
Bridget Carleton is a solid choice as she takes more shots per game (12.4) than anyone else on the team, leads the team in scoring (16.8 points per game), has a solid usage rate of 21.5% and a relatively high effective field-goal rate of 56.5%.
However, while Nyadiew Puoch has the lowest usage rate on the team and doesn't take six shots a game, she has scored the first basket twice this season. Carleton has done so once.
Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey are the best choices from the Tempo, at least on paper. Sykes takes 16+ shots a game on average, and Mabrey averages 14+ field-goal attempts. Each has a usage rate over 30%, but Mabrey has an effective field-goal rate of 47.1%, while Sykes comes in at 43.9%.
Toronto has recorded the first basket in one game this season. That player, Laura Juskaite, takes fewer than six shots per game, has a low usage rate (17.5%) and a solid effective field-goal rate (54.5%).
Picks: Brittney Sykes (+440)/Marina Mabrey (+600)/Bridget Carleton (+650)/Nyadiew Puoch (+1000)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces
Kelsey Plum is the obvious choice from the Sparks as she is the best player on a rather high-scoring offense. She has a high usage rate (26.6%) and a really high effective field-goal rate (65.4%). So, if she gets the ball in her hands, there is a good chance she'll make the shot.
Of course, anytime the Aces play, the person you have to look to is A'ja Wilson, the best player in the WNBA. Her usage rate is high (31.3%), as is her effective field-goal rate (63.5%).
Normally, I wouldn’t recommend a player like Stephanie Talbot, as her usage rate is just 9.1% and she doesn't even average three shots per game. However, Talbot has recorded the first basket twice this season; Wilson has done so just once.
Vegas has recorded the first basket in four of its five games, while Los Angeles has scored first three times out of five games.
Picks: A'ja Wilson (+380)/Kelsey Plum (+1000)/Stephanie Talbot (+1300)
