XFL Week 9 PrizePicks Player Predictions (2023)

Week 8 was wonderful for the PrizePicks player predictions. After a multi-week slide, all four picks were correct. It’s another four-pick week in Week 9. One quarterback’s over for passing yards is a screaming value, and it climbed 5.0 yards while I worked on this piece. The final three picks are unders. And while rooting for unders isn’t fun, cashing winning picks is a joy.

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Best XFL Week 9 PrizePicks Player Projections

Here are Saturday’s and Sunday’s best XFL Week 9 PrizePicks plays.

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Best XFL Week 9 PrizePicks Player Projections

Here are Saturday’s and Sunday’s best XFL Week 9 PrizePicks plays.

Luis Perez OVER 190.5 Passing Yards

Luis Perez is in a smash spot against a familiar opponent. This will be Perez’s third look at the Defenders since he played two games against them while on the Vipers. DC’s pass defense has been comically bad and the worst in the league by a large margin.

They’ve held an opposing team under 190.5 passing yards just once. Sadly, it was Vegas when Perez was starting. However, context is crucial. The game was windy and rainy in Las Vegas. The conditions were prohibitive to passing. Moreover, Perez lit them up for 283 yards as part of a 333-yard passing effort by the Vipers in the rematch.

DC’s opponents have averaged 269.5 passing yards per game against them. The season average was weighed down by the one rainy and windy contest’s 103-yard showing. So, the median outcome of 294.5 passing yards against the Defenders is more indicative of how lousy their pass defense is. As a result, Perez’s passing prop is the most exciting bet on the entire slate, and gamers should keep chasing the over even if it climbs another 15 yards before the game’s kickoff.

Abram Smith UNDER 70.5 RushingYards

Abram Smith has been the best runner in the XFL. It hasn’t been close, either. The former Baylor Bear has rumbled for 718 rushing yards in eight games. So, he’s averaged 89.75 rushing yards per game. Smith’s rushed for more than 70.5 rushing yards four times in eight games. Interestingly, his median outcome is precisely his rushing prop, 70.5 rushing yards.

The scales tip toward the under when factoring in context and the matchup. First, the Defenders punched their playoff ticket last week. They don’t need to lean as heavily on Smith. In fact, it would behoove them to take some work off his plate to keep him fresh for a championship run.

Second, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Renegades have the best rush defense in the XFL. Additionally, they’ve allowed only two running backs to rush for more than 70.5 yards in a game against them this year. Brian Hill rushed for 89 yards, and Jacques Patrick ran for 82. Those showings were outliers. Arlington’s allowed an average of 39.4 rushing yards and a median of 26.5 to the leading rushing running back in eight contests this season. So, the under is a great bet.

Ben DiNucci UNDER 250.5 Passing Yards

Ben DiNucci has spun it this year in the XFL’s most pass-heavy offense. He leads the league in passing yards (2,060), averaging 257.5 per game. Additionally, his median outcome is 265.0 passing yards.

However, he has a tricky matchup this week. The Battlehawks have allowed the fewest passing yards this year. They’ve held opponents to just 174.6 passing yards per game, and the median outcome against them was 200.5. They also held DiNucci to only 183 passing yards in Week 2, albeit on a short week since they played on a Thursday night.

The season-high output for passing yards against the Battlehawks was 224. So, DiNucci must significantly beat St. Louis’s worst defensive showing against the pass to hit his over. In addition, the Battlehawks can’t stop the run. They’ve allowed the most rushing yards to non-quarterbacks this season. Finally, Phillip Lindsay debuted for the Sea Dragons last week after less than a week to learn the offense. With more time to acclimate to the playbook, Seattle should unleash him against St. Louis’s dreadful run defense. As a result, the under for DiNucci’s passing prop is the play.

Jahcour Pearson UNDER 50.5 Receiving Yards

Jahcour Pearson’s under is partially a correlation play with DiNucci’s under. However, Pearson’s recent performance also had a hand in making the cut. He’s gone under 50.5 receiving yards in his previous three games after a hot start to the season.

Pearson is no longer sneaking up on defenses. He’s also faced stiff competition for production from talented teammates. Since Week 6, Pearson was second on the Sea Dragons in routes (117) and targets (20). Unfortunately, he’s parlayed his offensive participation into 14 receptions for a paltry 83 receiving yards. Pearson’s receiving yards were the fourth-most on the club during that span and only one ahead of Josh Gordon’s 82 on just 69 routes and 10 targets. So, let’s take DiNucci’s and Pearson’s correlated unders and root for the Sea Dragons to do the intelligent thing by leaning on Lindsay for a big game against St. Louis’s horrendous run defense.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.