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Trend points to the under in the Yankees-Red Sox one-game playoff

by Mike Spector | Yankees Correspondent |
Tue, Oct 5th 7:03am EDT

The under is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees and is 6-1 in their previous seven meetings in Boston.

Betting Impact:

The over/under for tonight's one-game playoff between the Yankees and Red Sox is 8.5 runs, per BettingPros consensus odds. Yankees ace Gerrit Cole (16-8, 3.23) faces the man who has pitched like Boston's ace all year in Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75). Many questioned Boston manager Alex Cora's decision to pitch Chris Sale on the last day of the regular season and leave Eovaldi to pitch their playoff game. However, Cora likely figured Eovaldi could give him more innings since Sale had been topping out at 90 pitches and six innings in his starts this season. In addition, Eovaldi has been pretty successful against the Yankees this year, going 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA in six starts against them. This is the seventh time the Yankees hitters will see Eovaldi this year, while Cole has made four starts against the Red Sox. Cole has pitched to a 4.91 ERA against Boston this year, and Red Sox hitters have made him work with a WHIP of 1.50 in his 22 combined innings. New York had a day off yesterday, but their bullpen still has to be feeling the effects of the Rays series to end the regular season. Aaron Boone managed that series like it was the playoffs and used 13 different relievers for a combined 16.1 innings over the three games. Boston's offense does not come into this game with the best momentum, as they were hitting .226/.303/.389 in their eight games before Sunday. Those numbers are even more concerning considering that five of those games were against the poor Orioles and Nationals pitching staffs. However, the Red Sox had a Major League-best .831 OPS in home games this year, and their 470 runs scored at Fenway Park were 14 more than the next closest team. Per Buster Olney on Twitter, Gerrit Cole is making his record-tying fifth start in a winner-take-all game playoff game. In the previous four, he is 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA.

Game: NYY at BOS Tue Oct 5th, 8:08pm ET | Categories: Line Movements, Trends