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Trends point to the over in the Astros-Red Sox Game 3

by Mike Spector | Red Sox Correspondent |
Mon, Oct 18th 7:45am EDT

The over is 5-0 in the Boston Red Sox' last five games, and is 4-0 in the Houston Astros' last four games as a road underdog.

Betting Impact:

The over/under for the Astros-Red Sox ALCS Game 3 is nine runs, per BettingPros consensus odds. the Astros need a big outing from Jose Urquidy, who has not appeared in a game since October 3rd. Urquidy is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA in eight postseason appearances, four starts. He was supposed to pitch in Game 4 of the ALDS, but manager Dusty Baker pivoted to Lance McCullers Jr. on short rest after their game initially was rained out. Many bettors will take that as a sign that Baker does not trust Urquidy, but the fact is he saw an opportunity to close a series out with his ace on the mound, and he took it. Urquidy faced Boston once this year on May 31st, holding them to one earned run on three hits over six innings while earning the win. Urquidy loved pitching at night this season, going 6-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 12 night starts compared to a 2-3 record and 4.75 ERA during the day. The Astros have won five of their last seven meetings with the Red Sox, and they will play this game as their postseason lives depend on it, given how murky their pitching plans look going forward. Urquidy has held current Red Sox hitters to a .136 batting average and .273 slugging percentage in 23 combined plate appearances. Boston counters with lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who went 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA this season. In two starts this season, Rodriguez was lit up by the Astros, as Houston hit a combined .351 against him and averaged six runs per game.

Game: HOU at BOS Mon Oct 18th, 8:08pm ET | Categories: Line Movements, Trends