The Giants are an injury-ravaged train wreck while the Patriots are chugging along as one of the league's two remaining unbeaten teams (along with the 49ers). New York will be without running backs Saquon Barkley and Wayne Gallman along with receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram. That's a prescription for a disaster against the league's best defense. And throw in a rookie quarterback (Daniel Jones) and it adds up to another stroll among the autumn leaves for New England. The Patriots must work on their offensive line and running attack and this game will provide the perfect opportunity, although the weather forecast is less than perfect: 100% chance of rain and gusty winds.
A comprehensive list of every first- and second-year quarterback who has won a regular-season game against the Patriots (5-0) in New England since Tom Brady took over as the team’s quarterback in 2001: Colin Kaepernick on Dec. 16, 2012. Does that mean Daniel Jones and the Giants (2-3) have no chance? Well, probably.
Throw in the Thursday night homefield advantage for the Patriots, and the fact that their up-and-down offensive line won't have any issues against a dormant Giants pass rush, and you have another easy victory for a team that's won three of its five games by 20-plus points—and it would have four of five if not for a muffed punt TD and pick-six of Jarrett Stidham against the Jets.
The Giants are going to struggle moving the ball in this game. This will be Daniel Jones' 4th start in his NFL career, and while he has been serviceable, this game is primetime in Foxboro. Not only that, he will also be without Engram, Barkley, Gallman, and Shepard while New England has been quite good on defense, and the opposite for the Giants. The Giants are 28th in passing yards against playing quarterbacks/offenses of Dak, Josh Allen, Winston, Keenum/Haskins, and Cousins. In those games, the Giants turnover differential is -5, while Tom Brady has only been picked off twice. Everyone knows the way you beat any good quarterback/offense is by keeping them off the field through sustained drives, and I don't see the Giants being able to do that in this game. NE -16.5.
Pretty soon they will have to come up with a nickname for the New England defense. The Patriots have allowed just 34 points in five games, and, keeping with historical Bostonian tradition, the breakdown is none if by air, two if by land and three is the number of times an opponent failed to score a touchdown in a game.
This is the largest spread for a Thursday night game in NFL history. And I’m OK with that, because it’s hard to imagine the Giants scoring many points — if any — given their offensive injuries, the Patriots’ dominant defense and Belichick’s track record of stifling rookie quarterbacks.
The Patriots would blow out a healthy Giants’ team. Now that New York will be without its star running back and two of Daniel Jones’ top three targets, this game could be over by halftime. New England ranks first in just about every major defensive category. It shouldn’t be difficult for Tom Brady and the Patriots to approach 30 points against an awful pass defense.
Once again, the Patriots take on a quarterback with limited experience in Daniel Jones. The Pats are 15-0 SU and 10-5 ATS against quarterbacks with fewer than 20 games of experience since 2016. Opposing QBs have no touchdowns and 11 interceptions with a 44 passer rating against New England this season.
The weather (rain) and the Patriots’ assorted injuries make me think it could be a, “Get in, get out, don’t get hurt” sort of effort, but the Giants will be without their three best offensive players on the road in a short week against Bill Belichick and the NFL’s best defense.
Between piercing wind, rain and facing the best defense of the last 30 years through five games, I don’t see how Daniel Jones leads the Giants to even double-digit points. New York’s defense is so bad, meanwhile, that New England will find a way to manufacture a few scores.
The Patriots (5-0) might not play a tough game until November. Seriously, the next few games include the Giants (2-3), Jets and Browns. New York doesn’t even have Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard.
Belichick built the perfect the defense this offseason, and I'm somewhat convinced he only did it so that he could destroy the Giants in this game. Through five weeks this season, the Patriots defense is giving up the fewest points per game (6.8), the fewest yards per game (238.4), and they lead the league in both sacks (11) and interceptions (24). Now let's throw in the fact that Daniel Jones has to face this team on just four days rest, and you have a disaster waiting to happen for New York.
Bill Belichick is 11-0 against rookie passers at home in his Patriots career. That will make for a tough challenge for Daniel Jones and the Giants. Belichick and his talented secondary will throw a ton of looks at the rookie and he will make mistakes.
It has to say something about how good the Patriots are that they covered a spread this large and it still felt underwhelming. They really weren’t at their best and it didn’t matter.