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2019 Orange Bowl: Florida Gators vs. Virginia Cavaliers Odds & Game Pick

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The Florida Gators finished the 2019 regular season 10-2 while the Virginia Cavaliers finished 9-4 after losing to the Clemson Tigers in the ACC Championship Game. The Cavaliers got into the Orange Bowl not because they were an especially strong team but because the ACC has a contractual provision in which it has the right to placing a team in the Orange Bowl in years when an ACC team makes the College Football Playoff (Clemson, in this case) and the Orange Bowl is not a playoff semifinal. This year’s semifinals are the Peach and Fiesta Bowls, so as a result of that detail, Virginia was able to get a spot in the Orange Bowl on Dec. 30 in Miami Gardens.

The Florida Gators are laying just over two touchdowns, making them one of the biggest favorites on the board this college football bowl season. Will they cover the spread?

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Details

  • Opening Line: Florida -14
  • Current Line: Florida -14.5
  • Over/Under: 54
  • Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
  • Start Time: 8:05 PM ET (Monday, Dec. 30)
  • Last Meeting: Gators 55 vs. Cavaliers 10 (1959, only meeting)

Overview

The Gators played a tough schedule and won their share of victories. Florida lost to Georgia and LSU, the two teams who played in the SEC Championship Game, so there are no bad losses on their resume. The Gators defeated nationally-ranked Auburn and also won games against Miami and Florida State. The Gators won 10 games despite the fact that opening day starting quarterback Feleipe Franks got injured in September, which forced backup Kyle Trask into immediate duty. Trask had an up-and-down season, but the good moments far outweighed the bad ones. He kept the offense intact and was able to do well under the guidance of head coach Dan Mullen, who did a great job of structuring the Florida offense.

It’s also worth noting that the Gators were without two of their better defensive players, Jon Greenard and Jabari Zuniga, for a good portion of the season due to injuries. They are expected to play in the Orange Bowl, a real boost for the Gators’ defense against mobile Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins.

As for Virginia, it was a very good year for Cavs despite a few bad losses to Miami and Louisville. The Cavaliers won their first-ever ACC Coastal Division championship and played in their first ACC Championship Game. Virginia also snapped a 15-game losing streak to in-state rival Virginia Tech. Perkins’ dual-threat capabilities as a passer and scrambler enabled Virginia to outscore Virginia Tech in a shootout. The Cavaliers hope to be able to enjoy similar success on offense against Florida.

Trends

  • Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games as a favorite.
  • Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
  • Cavaliers are 11-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Bottom Line

Florida is a better team, but the Gators might be bored by this matchup as opposed to a bigger-name school. Virginia figures to be the more motivated team with a lot to prove after getting blown out by Clemson in the national championship game. Florida might have enough defense to pull out the win, but Virginia seems like a very strong bet to cover the very large point spread here.

Prediction: Gators 27, Cavaliers 24

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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.