2020 NBA Draft: 3 Prop Bets for Draft Night
The 2020 NBA Draft is set for Wednesday, November 18, 2020, and this draft class is one of the more difficult ones to bet on. In past years, the No. 1 overall selection has been pretty straightforward, and the number of freshmen and international talent in the lottery has grown from year-to-year.
In 2020, I expect that to continue, and on FanDuel Sportsbook, they’re offering four-player props and two draft night props for the top 10. I’ll share two of my favorite draft night props and why there’s a ton of value in betting both.
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Cole Anthony, Under 20.5 (+112)
Anthony is one of the most exciting prospects in all of the draft. Anthony could go anywhere in the first round and as high as a lottery selection. He was one of the most sought-after high school players in the country and ended up at North Carolina in one of the Tar Heels’ worst seasons in a while. UNC won the regular-season ACC title in 2016, 17, and 19, but 6-14 in conference play last season and 14-19 overall.
Anthony averaged 18.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in 34.9 minutes over 22 games. His 4.0 assists to 3.5 turnovers was a red flag in his only season, but overall, he scored double-digits in 19-of-22 games, 12 games of 18 or more points, and nine games of 20 or more. The 6-foot-3 freshman from New York made 38% of his field goals and 34.8% of his triples in his only collegiate season.
Twenty teams passing on Anthony and his offensive firepower would be a mistake, but we’ve witnessed some impressive scorers that slide in the draft to the back end of the first round, including some last year. Jordan Poole went 28th, Kevin Porter Jr. 30th, and Carsen Edwards 32nd in 2019, all three similar in stock to Anthony’s. However, Anthony has a much higher ceiling than the three and has gauged interest from a few teams picking in the lottery and teens.
The Wizards (9th), Celtics (14th), Magic (15th), Blazers (16th), Timberwolves (17th), and the 76ers (21st) have all been linked to Anthony. Some front offices believe he’s a top-10 talent despite having an underwhelming one-and-done season. He’s a playmaker in the transition game and was one of the most talented, if not the most, at making difficult shots in the country.
Anthony only attempted 20% of shots at the rim as a freshman but made 53.6% of them along with a 50.1 true shooting percentage. He made 45.1% from the field and recorded a team-low 53.1% of shots coming on unassisted threes, opting to do it himself. Anthony’s assist to turnover ratio will be the defining factor early in his career on how often he plays, but he’s one of the best players in this draft; he shouldn’t endure all the blame from UNC’s season.
Kira Lewis Jr., Under 14.5 (-142)
Kira Lewis is one prospect that is climbing draft boards since his workouts. The former Alabama Crimson Tide guard spent two seasons with Avery Johnson, former 1999 NBA Champion and coach of the Mavericks (2005-08) and Nets (2010-12). Lewis is a sparkplug that increased all his numbers from his freshman to sophomore year/ Lewis raised his points per game from 13.5 to 18.5, rebounds from 2.6 to 4.8, and assists from 2.9 to 5.2 in a six-minute increase.
Lewis averaged 37.6 minutes played as a sophomore, a remarkable number for a 19-year-old guard in the SEC. Lewis has the offensive potential to be a lottery pick, and he proved that with two consistent seasons with the Tide. Lewis shot 43.3% and 45.9% from the field in two seasons and 35.8% and 36.6% from deep. His assist-to-turnover ratio also improved from 2.9-2.2 to 5.2-3.5 as a sophomore.
The Pistons (7th), Knicks (8th), Suns (10th), and Celtics (14th) have all strongly been linked to Lewis Jr. His odds have skyrocketed down just as much as stock, and the pro-ready guard has a strong chance to hear his name called in the lottery. Lewis attempted 45.2% of his field-goal attempts at the rim in 2019-20, making 57.9%, an impressive number for the 6-foot-3, 165 lbs. guard.
Lewis will need to gain weight in the NBA in order to work on his defense and finishing ability. Still, his speed, transition game, and ability to create his own shot is going to be appealing to whoever needs a rotational bench guard. Lewis can be unpredictable for defenses as he averages 34.8% of his shots from two-point jumpers and 34.4% from three, per Hoop–Math. He’ll be an offensive asset to whichever team selects him in the lottery, with tons of room to grow for the 19-year-old.
Over 4.5 Freshman Drafted in Top 10 (-130)
When I wrote about this prop on November 5, the odds were +252, so you can see this should be a winning pick. I’m sticking to it, so if you missed the first time around, here it is again at a value still worth having up to -150.
In the 2019 NBA Draft, four of the five top picks were freshman and seven of the top 10. This year’s class has a little more depth with overseas talent and upperclassman, but one thing for sure, March Madness derailed some of the draft talents that were to be on display.
Most players’ season ended early as the play-in tournaments were canceled or forfeited because of COVID. The international players who will surely hear their name called in the first ten picks are LaMelo Ball and Deni Adivija, but are there enough upperclassmen going in the top 10 not to see value in this prop? I doubt it.
I have five freshmen in my top 10, with three I am 100-percent confident will be selected. Anthony Edwards and James Wiseman are my top two selections, with Okongwu most likely going anywhere from 6-10. The two wildcards I have are Auburn’s Isaac Okoro and Florida State’s Patrick Williams. I like both of their values and ability to play multiple positions for any of the teams 8-10.
Other freshmen that could assist this prop are Kentucky’s Tyrese Maxey and longshots Cole Anthony of North Carolina and Precious Achiuwa of Memphis. My prediction for the top 10 draft picks is as follows.
- MIN: Anthony Edwards, Fr., Georgia
- GSW: James Wiseman, Fr., Memphis
- CHA: LaMelo Ball, Australia
- CHI: Deni Adivija, Israel
- CLE: Obi Toppin, So., Dayton
- ATL: Onyeka Okongwu, Fr., USC
- DET: Tyrese Haliburton, So, Iowa State
- NYK: Kira Lewis, So., Alabama
- WSH: Isaac Okoro, Fr., Auburn
- PHX: Patrick Williams, Fr., Florida State
I wouldn’t be surprised if Okoro or Williams snuck in with Washington at No. 9 or Phoenix at No. 10. Williams and Okoro each have been a hot commodity on draft boards and fit all four teams’ needs 6-10. I believe Detroit and New York will go after guards, whether that’s a point or shooting guard, so these two will likely have to find a home somewhere picks 8-10.
One player and guard to note that could sneak into the top 10 is Killian Hayes of France. He’s a combo guard that shoots left and could be the sleeper of this draft. Kira Lewis has impressed mightily in workouts with the Knicks, and with new management and a head coach in Tom Thibodeau, I don’t expect them to go their usual route. Lewis is an offensive talent with his foot always on the gas pedal, and if Thibedeau can mold his defense, he can be one hell of a player.
Over 4.5 Freshmen drafted is undoubtedly the better bet and more likely prop to hit the over between this and 3.5 International players in the top 10. The NBA has a habit of selecting 18 or 19-year-old talent outside of just the 2019 NBA Draft. Eight of the 10 top picks in 2018 were freshman and eight again in 2017. This field isn’t as easy as past classes, but this is one trend that I like to continue.
Make sure to check the odds at more than one sportsbook to get the best value with limited props out for the 2020 NBA Draft and 2020-21 regular-season.
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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.