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2020 NFL MVP Odds Best Value Bets

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Now that virtually every major sportsbook has futures NFL MVP odds available, we at BettingPros have formed a consensus. Today, we will begin analyzing the best options in hope that we can strike gold like those who put down money on Lamar Jackson to win at +6600 this time last year or Patrick Mahomes at +5500 two years ago before his record-breaking season in 2018. Before we dive into my three favorite value bets, let’s take a look at the past ten MVP winners to see what we can take away from the data.

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Historical Trends

  • 2019 – Lamar Jackson (13-2, 9.0 TD%, 43 total TDs, 4,333 total yds, +4000 preseason SB, O/U 8.5)
  • 2018 – Patrick Mahomes (12-4, 8.6 TD%, 52 total TDs, 5,369 total yds, +3000 preseason SB, O/U 8.5)
  • *2017 – Tom Brady (13-3, 5.5 TD%, 32 total TDs, league leader in pass yds, +275 preseason SB, O/U 12.5)
  • 2016 – Matt Ryan (11-5, 7.1 TD%, 38 total TDs, 5,041 total yds, +8000 preseason SB, O/U 7.0)
  • 2015 – Cam Newton (15-1, 7.1 TD%, 45 total TDs, 4,473 total yds, +6000 preseason SB, O/U 8.5)
  • 2014 – Aaron Rodgers (12-4, 7.3 TD%, 40 total TDs, 4,650 total yds, +1000 preseason SB, O/U 10.5)
  • 2013 – Peyton Manning (13-3, 8.3 TD%, 56 total TDs, 5,477 total yds, +600 preseason SB, O/U 11.5)
  • **2012 – Adrian Peterson (10-6, 2,097 rush yds, 13 total TDs, +10000 preseason SB, O/U 6.0)
  • 2011 – Aaron Rodgers (14-1, 9.0 TD%, 48 total TDs, 4,900 total yards, +650 preseason SB, O/U 11.5)
  • 2010 – Tom Brady (14-2, 7.3 TD%, 37 total TDs, 3,930 total yards, +1200 preseason SB, O/U 9.5)

Unsurprisingly, nine of the last 10 NFL MVPs were quarterbacks with Adrian Peterson’s 2,000 yard rushing season being the only exception. And frankly, even with nearly breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season record, AP barely beat out Peyton Manning who just missed the invisible prerequisite statistics to win MVP. What you will see below is that all 9 quarterback MVPs were among the four signal-callers for teams who secured playoff byes.

Only one (Tom Brady in 2017*) failed to reach a 7.0 TD%. So when you look at the 2012 season’s playoff bye QBs (Matt Ryan 5.2%), Alex Smith/Colin Kaepernick, Tom Brady (5.3%) and Peyton Manning (6.3%), you’ll notice they all failed to reach that mark. With the voting having been as close as it was, those extra 4 TDs would have likely been enough to for Manning to have made up the difference and overtaken AP for the MVP.

The reason I gave Brady the asterisk is that prior to Carson Wentz’s Week 14 injury (11-2, 7.5 TD%), he was the clear-cut front-runner for NFL MVP. It isn’t as though voters look at TD%, but this highly volatile and unpredictable metric controls what is seen and voted upon: total touchdowns, which appear to be much more important to voters than efficiency metrics like yards/attempt.

Like it or not, 550 pass attempts is to small of a sample-size from the perspective of trying to normalize a quarterback’s true TD-rate abilities. Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, for instance, have normalized at a whopping 6.0% with Peyton Manning (5.7), Tom Brady (5.4), and Drew Brees (5.4) all close behind. The point is that even the greatest QBs cannot sustain league-leading rates. See Patrick Mahomes dropping from 8.6 to a still impressive 5.4 last year. Carson Wentz dropped from 7.5 to 5.2, Matt Ryan dropped from 7.1 to 3.8 and Cam Newton dropped from 7.1 to 3.7. There are countless examples of these spikes that superficially inflate a QBs TD totals by 5 to even 20 in a small 550 pass attempt sample-size.

Likewise, the other prerequisite, playoff byes, is less predictable than you’d probably assume. Only half of the MVP candidates were projected by Vegas to finish with 9.0 wins or more. To put that into perspective, there are 14 teams who are projected for 9.0 or higher this season. Essentially, that means half of the MVPs weren’t even expected to make the playoffs. That doesn’t mean predicting the NFL MVP is hopeless but rather than you need to get out of your box and consider some legitimate possibilities that you might instinctually scoff at.

Ryan Tannehill +8000

You may be laughing but you similarly would have laughed if I recommended Lamar Jackson (+6600) as the best MVP bet last season or Patrick Mahomes (+5500) the year before, Carson Wentz (+1000) when he was on pace to win it in 2017 and Matt Ryan (+7000) when he broke out for a historically great 2016. Get the point? Now, let me explain why Tannehill fits the mold.

From the time Tannehill took over as the starter in Tennessee (Week 7), he was the best quarterback in football. Really. In fact, he became just the fifth quarterback of all-time to post 10 or more AY/A (Pass Yds +(20 * Passing TD) – (45 * Interceptions))/(Passes Attempted). The three who started at least 15 games all won the MVP running away.

In fact, Tannehill had 1.09 more yards per attempt than any other QB in the final 11 weeks. That is larger the career difference between Tom Brady and Trent Dilfer. It’s twice the difference between Drew Brees and Andy Dalton or Peyton Manning and Jay Cutler. Folks, Tannehill was ridiculous as the starter.

The Titans went from 2-4 with 16.3 points scored per game with Mariota to 7-3 with 30.4 points per game and at least 20 in all 10 games with Tannehill. Not only that, but they went into New England in the playoffs and won then went into Baltimore and won before jumping out to a 17-7 lead in Kansas City during the AFC Title Game.

It isn’t as though Tannehill has always been terrible. Prior to his injuries and the arrival of Adam Gase in 2016, he was #3 all-time behind Peyton Manning and Dan Marino in passing yards during the first four seasons of a career and top 10 all-time in most TDs. His interception rate? Top 10 best and he accomplished all of this with lackluster weapons and a struggling offensive line.

Now that Tannehill was finally in an otherwise complete offense last season with Tennessee, he finally broke out. And not only was Tannehill outrageously efficient as a passer but he ran in 4 touchdowns in 10 starts last year too.

If the Titans, the most complete roster in the NFL, can cruise through the hapless AFC South to a playoff bye and Tannehill performs at even 90% the efficiency we saw last season, most people will be shaking their heads wondering how they missed out on this big payday.

Dak Prescott +1400

I am far and away most passionate about the Ryan Tannehill bet but I love Dak’s odd’s too. At +1400, you have to ask yourself if he has a better chance than 7.1% of winning the MVP. If he does, you’ve got yourself a good value. Now, everyone assumes the Saints and 49ers are the favorites to secure NFC byes, but with an over/under at 9.5, the second-best offensive line in football, an upgraded defense and perhaps the best skill players in football (Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb), Dak has the weapons to potentially win 12+ games.

Dak is now 40-24 through his first four seasons and after finally being given some weapons to throw to last year, he jumped from a career-high 3,885 passing yards to 4,902. Not only does he still have (a now healthy) Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup (coming off an 1,107 yard, 14 game second season), but the Cowboys just added what may be the best receiving prospect in the past five seasons of the NFL Draft.

Don’t forget that Dak is playing for a historical contract this season too. If the Cowboys can manage to pass up either San Francisco or New Orleans and Dak’s TD-rate spikes from 5.0 to 7.0% (bringing his total TDs from 30 to 42, we are talking about the likely NFL MVP. I’m putting those odds well above 7.2% so this seems to be a strong ROI bet.

Carson Wentz +2800

While I like the Cowboys’ weapons better, the Eagles’ offensive line is just about as great as Dallas has. It isn’t like Wentz will be passing to average joes like Nelson Agholor, Greg Ward and Mack Hollins all season either. Alshon Jeffrey comes back from injury, DeSean Jackson comes back from injury and the Eagles drafted Jalen Reagor with the 21st overall pick. That is a quality trio of weapons and we haven’t even mentioned Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert and Miles Sanders.

And yes, I am suggesting placing a bet on both Wentz and Dak. One of these teams is going to win the NFC East and I want a share of both because it seems like another toss-up. Wentz has had difficulty staying on the field and struggled through an injury-ridden 2019 with limited wideouts to throw to, but let’s not so quickly forget just how dominant he was in 2017 as a second-year quarterback. Wentz was the clear-cut front-runner for NFL MVP before his injury. Can it happen again with the best receiving corps Wentz has ever seen? Of course. Now, it isn’t especially likely, however, we just need a 4% chance for this to be a killer value and I’d wager Wentz’ odds are better than that and perhaps twice as high.

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Bobby Sylvester is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Bobby, check out his archive and follow him @BobbyFantasyPro.