2020 NFL Win Totals: Buccaneers, Cardinals, Bills
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As the 2020 NFL Draft approaches, it’s a good time to lock in your futures bets before much else changes. While most of the big-name free agents have found their new homes, there’s still some value to be found based on the recency of those developments.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9 Wins (Over -110, Under -110)
The Bucs’ first year under Bruce Arians was a step in the right direction for the perennially mediocre franchise. They scored the third-most points in the NFL with 458, but they finished the year just 7-9. A major contributing factor to their lackluster win total was Jameis Winston’s league-leading 30 interceptions. The turnovers and Winston’s general inconsistencies diminished any upside the team possessed, which led to the organization cutting ties with the former first overall pick this offseason.
Notable Offseason Addition: Tom Brady (QB)
It goes without saying that the Tom Brady signing is a boon to the Tampa Bay organization. Not only was this the organization’s most notable free-agent signing ever, but it will also be one of the NFL’s most-discussed moves for generations to come. The two-year, $50 million contract will pay for itself in merchandise and ticket sales — not to mention the likely elite play on the field. Winston’s 30 interceptions in 2019 were more than Brady has had in his last four seasons combined (29).
2020 Opponents
HOME: Packers, Chiefs, Vikings, Saints, Chargers, Falcons, Panthers, Rams
AWAY: Bears, Lions, Broncos, Raiders, Giants, Saints, Falcons, Panthers
Betting Advice:
To no surprise, Brady signing in Tampa Bay significantly influenced the Bucs’ odds across the board. They opened the offseason with 60-1 odds to win the Super Bowl and that skyrocketed to 14-1 after the signing. Their win total opened at seven, but it sprung up to nine after the news as well.
Last year, the Bucs went 2-6 at home and 7-9 overall, but they lost seven of those games by just seven or fewer points. Having New Orleans and Atlanta in your division doesn’t help matters, and neither will visits from the Chiefs, Packers, and Vikings. However, with Brady at the helm, I believe that they will improve their home record and turn a few of those close losses into wins as Brady won’t turn the ball over as much.
Arizona Cardinals
7.5 Wins (Over +110, Under -133)
Offense won’t be the question for the Cardinals heading into 2020. Quarterback Kyler Murray won the 2019 Offensive Rookie of the Year award after throwing for 3,722 yards and 20 touchdowns — along with his 544 yards rushing and four rushing scores. However, the Arizona defense gave up a league-worst 402 yards per game last season, which contributes to their relatively low win total projection for this upcoming season.
Biggest Offseason Additions: DeAndre Hopkins (WR), Jordan Phillips (DT), Devon Kennard (OLB)
After Tampa Bay’s signing of Tom Brady, the Cardinals made the next-biggest move of the offseason by trading for DeAndre Hopkins. The organization pulled off an absolute heist when they landed the star wideout for just David Johnson and a second-round pick in 2020.
While the offense speaks for itself, Phillips and Kennard are two other notable additions. Phillips will help shore up a leaky run defense, and Kennard will improve the pass rush after he posted seven sacks in 2019.
2020 Opponents
HOME: Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, Bills, Lions, Dolphins, Eagles, Redskins
AWAY: Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, Panthers, Cowboys, Patriots, Giants, Jets
Betting Advice:
The improvement of the Cardinals’ win total this year will depend solely on their defensive changes. The offense, without question, will be explosive and keep them in many games. However, I’m not sure Phillips and Kennard are enough to get them over the hump.
Murray was sacked 52 times last year, so strengthening the offensive line will be paramount in the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft. The Cardinals own the eighth overall pick and should have their choice of Jedrick Wills, Mekhi Becton, and Andrew Thomas. Any of these three should provide better protection to help Murray succeed.
They’ll have an edge in at least three home games against the Lions, Dolphins, and ‘Skins. Additionally, they should be favored in their three away games against the Giants, Jets and the rebuilding Panthers. They haven’t gone 0-6 in their division since 2002, either, so one would think they will be able to squeeze out a couple of wins. However, I think it’s going to be tight.
Lean: Pass — but if forced to play, I would lean Over 7.5 (+110) because of the + Vig
Buffalo Bills
8.5 Wins (Over -133, Under +110)
Fresh off a 10-win season and their second playoff berth in the last three years, the Bills will look to continue their success while taking advantage of Tom Brady’s exit from the division rival New England Patriots.
Biggest Offseason Additions: Stefon Diggs (WR), Mario Addison (DE), A.J. Klein (LB)
The Bills have had a great offseason thus far. Adding star wide receiver Stefon Diggs gives Josh Allen a true No. 1 WR for the first time in his career. Adding him to a strong receiving core of John Brown and Cole Beasley should enable the former Wyoming star and this offense to take the next step.
The additions of defensive end Mario Addison and linebacker A.J. Klein, along with the re-signing of safety Jordan Poyer, only solidify an already stellar defense.
2020 Opponents
HOME: Chiefs, Chargers, Rams, Seahawks, Steelers, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets
AWAY: Cardinals, Broncos, Raiders, 49ers, Titans, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets
Betting Advice:
The time has never been better for the Bills to take the reigns from the Patriots and win the AFC East. While you can never discount New England, the departure of Brady gives them an edge they haven’t had since the mid-90s.
I would like to see them add a running back to complement Devin Singletary in the red zone, as the team wasn’t confident using the dynamic back in that spot last year. Otherwise, the addition of Diggs was massive, as they can pair a stronger offense with their already-fantastic defense.
Games against the Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers — and, of course, the Patriots — will be tough, but I think this team will take the next step and at least match their win total from last year. Who knows, maybe they’ll even exceed it!
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Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive.