Navigate

2020 Outback Bowl: Auburn Tigers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Odds & Game Pick

by |

The Outback Bowl pits the Auburn Tigers (9-3) from the SEC against the Minnesota Golden Gophers (10-2) from the Big 10. Both programs seem to be trending in the right direction, even in incredibly difficult conferences. Not only will these teams want to finish their season with a victory, but they’ll also want to use it as a springboard for 2020.

The betting markets have moved this number ever so slightly to seven since opening at eight points in favor of the Tigers. Will the SEC prove that it just means more, or can the Big 10 continue to improve their foothold on the national stage?

Playoff Pick’em: Play free for autographed prizes & FantasyPros subscriptions >>

Details

Opening line: Auburn -8
Current line: Auburn -7
O/U: 53.5
Location: Raymond James Stadium Tampa Bay, Florida
Start Time: 1:00 PM EST
Television: ESPN
Last Meeting: These two teams have never met

Overview

For a majority of the bowl games, the most significant factor for figuring out which team to support comes down to motivation. This game will feature two teams who can be proud of their season, even if there were some stumbles along the way.

The Golden Gophers started the year 9-0 before stumbling in two of their final three contests. P.J. Fleck and company should be able to provide plenty of motivation for his team. This will be Minnesota’s second New Year’s Day Bowl appearance since 1962.

Auburn will be on the other side of the field, and they went 9-3 — including a win over in-state rival Alabama in the Iron Bowl. After coming into the season on the hot seat, Gus Malzahn seems to have righted the ship. A big key to their success this season has been freshman Bo Nix. He threw for 2,366 yards with 22 total touchdowns.

Heading into the Outback Bowl, Auburn should have a full complement of players, including SEC Defensive Player of the Year Derrick Brown. He has had an impressive season and should hear his name called in the upcoming NFL Draft.

This is bad news for a Minnesota Golden Gophers offense that might be without tackle Daniel Faalele. His loss would be massive — literally — as Faalele is 6’9” and 400 pounds. It would make things much tougher on quarterback Tanner Morgan and the Gophers’ passing attack. Morgan had an impressive season after entering it as an afterthought. He threw for nearly 3,000 yards with 28 touchdowns and only six interceptions. His arm and legs will be counted on against this Auburn defensive line.

Trends

  • Auburn is 3-3 ATS and 2-4 Straight up in Bowl games.
  • Auburn is 6-2 ATS as a favorite this season.
  • The total has gone under in four of Auburn’s last five games.
  • The total has gone under in seven of Auburn’s last 10 neutral site games.
  • Minnesota is 7-5 ATS this season.
  • Minnesota is 2-2 ATS as an underdog this season.

Bottom Line

This pick is a little dangerous since both teams have the ability to put up points in bunches, and they are incredibly efficient when they get in the red zone. This is also an Auburn team that rolled a Big 10 team in their bowl game a year ago 63-14, hitting the over by themselves.

That said, both teams have stout rushing defenses. Minnesota and Auburn both rank inside the top-30 for rush defense efficiency. And while Bo Nix and Tanner Morgan have had impressive seasons, their offenses rely on their running game to gain traction. I expect Derrick Brown and company to spend a ton of time in the Golden Gopher backfield, creating all kinds of havoc. The Gophers’ defense should do much of the same, keeping this game below the total.

Pick: Under 53.5

Sign up now at PointsBet and get up to $1,000 back on your first two bets! >>

Kyle Robert is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @NotoriousKRO.