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2020 Sugar Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs vs Baylor Bears Odds and Game Pick

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The Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) from the SEC face off against the Baylor Bears (11-2) for the Big 12. Georgia enters this game with some changes on the coaching staff and Kirby Smart wondering how he needs to tweak his offense for 2020. Matt Rhule will want to use this game as a springboard into 2020. He will have a team ready to compete for the Big 12 next season led by quarterback Charlie Brewer.

For this game, the Bulldogs will be without several key players including five starters. Two of these starters include offensive tackle Andrew Thomas and defensive back J.R. Reed. Both of whom were All-Americans this season. This has helped the spread fall like a rock. After opening at 8.5 in favor of Georgia the spread currently sits at 5.5.

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Details

  • Opening line: Georgia -8.5
  • Current line: Georgia -5.5
  • O/U: 41.5
  • Location: Mercedes Benz Superdome New Orleans, LA
  • Start Time: 8:45 EST
  • Television: ESPN
  • Last Meeting: September 16th, 1989

Overview

Trying to figure out who to back in bowl games has much more to do with the psychological aspect as opposed to straight X’s and O’s. Some teams enter the season with lofty expectations while others come in with a lower bar and are able to fly over it. This is one of those cases.

Georgia came into this game with the expectation of getting back the College Football Playoff and trying to finish the job. Despite finishing 11-2, this was a letdown season for the Bulldogs. While they won the SEC East, they were dismantled in the SEC Championship by LSU and left on the outside looking in for the College Football Playoff.

Baylor, on the other hand, is just a few short years away from the Art Briles era that left the program in shambles. They also finished the season 11-2 but fans in Waco are ecstatic with the season the Bears had. Both of their losses came at the hands of Oklahoma including a regular-season contest that without a dramatic collapse might have had Baylor in the Playoff.

A year after losing outright to a Texas team in the very same bowl game, Georgia returns to face another team from Texas.

Trends

  • Georgia has gone 7-5 ATS this season.
  • The total has gone under in seven of Georgia’s last eight games.
  • The total has gone under in six of Georgia’s last nine games against a Big 12 opponent.
  • Baylor has gone 9-4 ATS this season.
  • Baylor has covered the spread in five straight games.
  • The total has gone under in four of Baylor’s last six games.
  • Baylor is 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when playing as the underdog.

Bottom Line

If you like Baylor in this game like I do you should take them on the moneyline. Since 1980, if you exclude games that went off as a pick’em, the favorite covers 47.4% of the time, the underdog wins outright 36.31% of the time, and the favorite wins but doesn’t cover just 14.42% of the time. Basically, if the favorite wins then they are much more likely to cover.

That said, for my official pick I will take the under on 41.5. This game will feature two teams who want to run the ball plenty. Georgia will have a depleted offensive line with both Thomas and Isaiah Wilson sitting out of the game. It will make it tougher for the Bulldogs to establish the ground attack. I expect the clock to be rolling and both teams to possess the ball. Georgia loves an under. Baylor loves an under. I love an under. Let’s have a reason to sweat this New Years Day!

Pick: Under 41.5

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Kyle Robert is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @NotoriousKRO.