2021 March Madness: Sleepers to Make the Sweet Sixteen
From Selection Sunday through the first tip-off of the NCAA Tournament, we’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle and find Cinderella before she puts on that glass slipper. We’re scouting the Davids in the field to see who can take out the Goliaths.
Every year, we’re trying to find the sleepers who can make a run. We’re trying to be the person in our group text who can say, “I told you that team was dangerous!â€
This year, I’m going to help you do just that. I’m going to go region-by-region, highlighting the teams that are poised to make a surprise run to the Sweet Sixteen in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
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West Region Sleepers
(13) Ohio Bobcats
Oh, how I love this Bobcats bunch. Ohio has won 10 of its last 11 games, with a three-week COVID pause in between. It has a legitimate NBA prospect in Jason Preston and four players scoring in double figures. Ohio is also an excellent offensive team, ranking 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 13th in effective field goal percentage.
Ohio has a better chance at beating Virginia than you might think. The Cavaliers aren’t a great defensive team, which plays right into Ohio’s hands. Plus, Virginia won’t even arrive in Indianapolis until Friday as the team remains in quarantine.
The Bobcats have a legitimate chance of pulling an upset on the potentially short-handed and rusty Cavaliers. Ohio took Illinois down to the wire early in the season, so they won’t be intimidated by the defending champs. From there, Ohio has the talent to knock off both Creighton and UC-Santa Barbara. Speaking of which…
(12) UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos
The Gauchos might end up being the most popular upset pick in the entire bracket. They’re a balanced team out of the Big West that ranks 72nd in adjusted-offensive efficiency and 87th in defensive efficiency.
UCSB is at its strongest in the interior. The Gauchos shoot 53.4% from the 2-point range and hold teams to 46.6%. They also play at a slow pace, protect the ball, force turnovers and clean up the defensive glass.
UCSB will face a Creighton team that is outstanding when everything’s right. But things haven’t been right lately. The Bluejays closed the season 3-3, with two of those wins coming against Butler. There could be some tension within the locker room after coach Greg McDermott served a one-game suspension for inappropriate and insensitive comments in a postgame presser. Simply, Creighton is in bad form at the worst time.
If the Gauchos catch the Bluejays on a bad shooting day, they’ll have a great chance to pull an upset. I’m expecting the West Region to feature serious chaos, with UCSB and Ohio at the root of it.
East Region
(7) UConn Huskies
Lots of people seem to think Alabama has a pretty clear path to the Sweet Sixteen. But not so fast, my friends. The Huskies are for real and playing their best ball as of late.
Led by James Bouknight, a legit prospect at the next level, the Huskies have won seven of their last nine and have done so in impressive fashion, winning each game by at least eight points. But it’s not just Bouknight. UConn also has guards R.J. Cole and Tyrese Martin scoring in double figures, plus a deep frontcourt.
The Huskies rank 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 23rd in defensive efficiency, and 28th in effective field goal percentage. They can lock anyone down, have a star and plenty of talent behind him. Plus, Dan Hurley is a tremendous coach who’s brought UConn back to relevance.
If UConn can get past Maryland, they’ll have a real chance to upset the Crimson Tide.
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South Region
(11) Utah State Aggies
I admit the South Region is one where I don’t see a ton of chaos. While many view 12 seed Winthrop as a big threat to upset Villanova, I’m not as confident in their ability to beat Nova and, most likely, Purdue.
So, I’m turning to the Aggies. Utah State is a defensive juggernaut that ranks inside the top 40 in both KenPom and Torvik. The Aggies rank 10th in defensive efficiency and hold teams to just 42.9% on 2-point attempts.
Utah State and Texas Tech are sort of carbon copies of each other. Both are excellent defensive teams that don’t exactly light it up offensively. If Utah State’s 7-footer Neemias Queta can be a force in the paint, then the Aggies have a chance to surprise some people.
Midwest Region
(8) Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Oddly enough, my two favorite sleepers in this region are facing each other in the opening round. What a terrible job the NCAA selection committee did here. The Ramblers are a fantastic team that might be even more dangerous than the 2018 Final Four team.
Loyola plays incredibly slow and almost always takes a good shot, which is why it ranks ninth in effective field goal percentage. The Ramblers will also lock opponents up on the other end. Loyola ranks third in the country in effective field goal percentage.
You might recognize the name Cameron Krutwig, and that’s because he was a freshman when Loyola staged its Final Four run. Krutwig has only improved since then and makes the Ramblers incredibly generous for the 1 seed, Illinois.
(9) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
I’ve fallen in love with the Yellow Jackets over the second half of the season. Georgia Tech is scrappy, forces a ton of turnovers, and enters the tournament winners of their last eight games. The Jackets are led by an outstanding trio of guard Jose Alvarado, the big man Moses Wright, and Michael Devoe.
The Yellow Jackets are also an exceptional 2-point shooting team and make enough threes to be a difficult team to defend.
My only problem is that only one of these teams will make it to the Round of 32. Thanks, selection committee.
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.