2021 MLB Futures: Best Bets to Win the NL Pennant
Circling back to my previous post discussing the NL’s best bets to win the Pennant, I’ve made a few changes. Following the Zac Gallen injury and (to a lesser degree) the Kole Calhoun injury, I can no longer endorse the Diamondbacks, even at 80-1. I favored them at full strength, but now they’re even more of a long shot.
I’m also ready to move on from the Washington Nationals. At 20-1, they are still quite valuable, but from what I’ve seen, wagering on them to finish in front of the Dodgers, Mets, Braves, or Padres is a bit much to ask with only a +2000 payout. The main reason being, it looks as though their aging starting staff is going to be difficult to rely on for the long haul of the season.
Stephen Strasburg, 32, is already dealing with nagging injuries, which are sure to continue throughout the year. Patrick Corbin, 31, looks closer to the 2020 version of himself than to previous seasons. And Jon Lester, 37, whose career is likely winding down, just had surgery to remove his thyroid. It won’t prevent him from playing, but it definitely slowed his preparedness for the regular season. Max Scherzer has looked great, but he’ll turn 37 this season and has dealt with recurring back problems in the past.
The Nats farm system doesn’t offer much in the way of starting pitching depth either. If the team has to rely on Austin Voth or Erick Fedde or even Joe Ross (who’s slated to be the number five in the rotation) to carry them, good luck to the Nationals finishing above .500. On the other hand, their hitting has been exceptional, but without reliable starting pitching these days, it’s really tough to put together a winning season. If you still want to throw a few bucks down on them, I wouldn’t blame you, but they’re no longer high on my list as a valuable pick.
Regarding who I do like, the Dodgers (+180) obviously still have the upper hand after already possessing one of, if not the best rosters in all of baseball, they went out and signed the reigning Cy Young award winner. The Padres (+425) are next on the list of favorites, as they too have vastly improved. Their revamped pitching staff can shut down even the most prolific offensives, and their lineup is excellent from top to bottom. The Friars will be a very tough team to eliminate come playoff time and may be the smartest choice in picking among the favorites. Then there’s the Atlanta Braves (+500). Atlanta has every positional starter returning from last year’s highest-scoring offense, and they heavily upgraded their pitching staff as well.
The problem with these three teams is that none of their payouts are really worth the gamble. A common strategy I’ve heard is to take both the Padres and Braves and then hedge your bet against them if one of them makes the NLCS (if both make it, you’re sitting pretty). The problem with this strategy is that it obviously leaves you hanging if the Mets defeat them or some other surprise team sneaks in. After dropping half your wager on the loser, the amount it will cost you to hedge your bet against them and take the Dodgers (if they make it) will leave you with less than 25 percent of your original payout. It’s not a horrible strategy if you’re that confident in those two teams, but to me, it’s too big of a risk without enough reward.
With so much out of a club’s control, I tend to stay away from putting money on the heavily favored teams this early in the year (even if you’re just choosing one). Simply because the payouts aren’t great, and the NL just has too many contenders! Impactful injuries always occur, and you just never know who may or may not have a down year. A team with great depth does help counteract such intangibles, but it’s not worth the risk in my mind.
Plus, with such low odds, waiting to see how the team performs over the first few months won’t cost you much, if at all, and could even work in your favor. If the team suffers through a losing streak or a key player gets injured, the payouts would likely increase. So, unless you’re a fan and just love to be monetarily invested as you root for your squad, I don’t usually recommend it.
What I do find profitable (when it’s reasonably applicable) is finding those teams that are longshots, whose payouts are very good or of great value. Once the regular season begins and they start winning, the odds will drop quickly, so you need to grab those underdogs now at their highest peak. Then, if somehow they do make it into the playoffs, you can then hedge your bet against them and pocket a decent amount of money. Or, if you truly want to play the risk, you can let it ride.
With all that in mind, here are the two best bets to win the 2021 NL pennant, other than the trio of aforementioned front runners. They may not be the most likely per se, but they do offer the best value.
Odds taken from various locations, including FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM.
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New York Mets (+600)
Is this the year Mets fans have been clamoring for over the past few seasons? On paper, it sure seems that way. Coming out on top in the underrated NL East will prove difficult, but at the very worst, a wild card birth looks highly attainable for the potent Mets.
The additions of All-Stars Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco and recently signed Taijuan Walker obviously make them a lot better. Still, the Mets already possessed a fine group of young talent. Dominic Smith had the breakout year everyone was hoping for. Pete Alonso could hit 50 home runs again. Brandon Nimmo gets on base over 40% of the time. Jeff McNeil is a perennial batting-champ contender, and Michael Conforto quietly does everything well.
Adding Lindor to the mix is not only a huge boost to the lineup and defense, but will further improve everyone around him by bringing his five tools and infectiously great attitude along with him. New York also added James McCann at catcher, who was not only fantastic offensively, but a beast behind the plate last season for the White Sox. The lineup doesn’t contain a single easy out from top to bottom. They even have a ton of depth (Jonathan Villar, Kevin Pillar, Albert Almora Jr.) in case of injury or unexpected illness (a COVID outbreak is still a threat for all teams).
The pitching staff is led by arguably the best hurler in baseball, Jacob deGrom, and now boasts a fine rotation to back him up. Not only did they add Carrasco and Walker, but Marcus Stroman (also a former All-Star), who opted out of the 2019 season, is set to be the number two starter. Carrasco is slated to miss the first couple of months of the season with a strained hamstring, but it shouldn’t hold him out for too long.
The rotation is rounded out by the former first-round pick, David Peterson, who last year in his rookie campaign showed plenty of promise by producing a 3.44 ERA over 9 starts (10 games). Finally, there’s Joey Lucchesi, who was an above-average pitcher his first two seasons in San Diego and had a solid Spring this year. Noah Syndergaard is also waiting in the wings recovering from surgery and is expected to return sometime in the middle of summer. The Mets even possess a multitude of players to provide depth at the minor league level if something goes wrong.
The bullpen improved with the addition of Trevor May (2.74 xFIP) to add to its plethora of high K% veterans. Lefty specialist Aaron Loup and righty Jacob Barnes were also added to the roster. While plenty of NRI standouts such as Tommy Hunter and lefty Stephen Tarpley will be given a chance to stick around at the alternate site to step in as needed eventually. And with Edwin Diaz getting back on track with a fantastic season last year, even if a few arms fail to meet expectations, the bullpen as a whole should be outstanding.
I believe the Braves will repeat as division champs, but the Mets will be tight on their heels and shouldn’t have a problem earning a Wild Card. And with the promised spending of new majority owner Steven Cohen, look for the Mets to do all they can to win, even if that involves adding more players during the regular season and buying at the trade deadline. I believe they have a great shot at winning it all, and with slightly better odds than the Braves or Padres, it makes New York a savvy pick.
Milwaukee Brewers (+3000)
The Brewers are the definition of a value pick this season. Not only have they made the playoffs the last two years, but no one is talking about them, allowing their odds to grow even further. Will they win it all? Probably not, but do they have a better than 30-1 chance? Abso-freakin-lutely. Besides boasting one of the top starting pitching duos in Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, their lineup is far more capable of scoring runs than they did last season, and they even play in a weak division. Plus, don’t forget about their pair of unhittable, strikeout-2-batters-an-inning relievers they use to close out games.
Christian Yelich is one of the best hitters in baseball, and with the return of table-setter Lorenzo Cain, who sat out last year, the team is already better. Add in the signing of consecutive Gold Glove winner Kolten Wong and a return to Avisail Garcia and catcher Omar Narvaez’s career norms, and the lineup is even more improved. Keston Hiura is another player who can rake, judging by the immense promise he showed during his rookie season and in the minor leagues. And a move to first base will only help his development after struggling defensively at second over his first two years in the league.
One other point of emphasis worth highlighting is the strength of Milwaukee’s bullpen. Not only do they have ROY, Devin Williams, and electric closer Josh Hader, but the Brew Crew also carries Brent Suter, Freddy Peralta (who will start the season in the rotation), Eric Yardley, J.P. Feyereisen, and Drew Rasmussen. Those seven pitchers combined ERA’s last season was 2.78 with 303 total strikeouts over 207 innings (Feyereisen’s numbers taken from 2019 triple-A).
If veterans Josh Lindblom (10.3 K/9, 3.88 FIP), Brett Anderson, and Adrian Houser can be halfway decent (which they’ve demonstrated in the past), then the Brewers shut-down bullpen, combined with all their other strengths, could lead them to the division title. Even if they come up a bit short, the Wild Card should be well within their grasp, placing the Brewers back in the playoffs for a third straight year. And once they’re in, they’ll be a team to be reckoned with, as no one is going to want to face Woodruff and Burnes to open a 5 game series.
I’m not buying the Cardinals with Nolan Arenado (who’s never been that great outside of Colorado) as the favorites. The team has weaknesses up and down their lineup, and their staff has question marks as well. Put your money on the Brew Crew, and consider hedging just enough to cover your original bet once they make it in.
Be sure to check out my article, MLB Futures 2021: Best Bets to Win the AL Pennant.
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Austin Lowell is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Austin, check out his archive.