2021 NFL Draft Prop Bets: First Running Back Selected
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The NFL Draft landscape for 2021 is a fascinating one when considering the running back group which will be evaluated. Originally, the thinking was that the composition of this running back draft class was different from what many expected, due to one highly surprising decision to return. However, Travis Etienne’s decision has been overshadowed by more recent stories with Chuba Hubbard and Kylin Hill – two of the other players on the board – raising social concerns at their schools (and threatening to transfer).
We’ll start with Etienne, who is favored, and then look at everyone else on the board.
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Travis Etienne – Clemson
Odds To Be First Drafted: -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The move which surprised everyone in football – college football and NFL football observers alike – was the choice of Clemson running back Travis Etienne to stay in college for his senior season, instead of entering the 2020 draft. We know that running backs have short professional shelf lives. Taking the hits and the hard knocks wear down running backs very quickly. It is therefore seen as valuable if a running back leaves college after three seasons so that he enters the pros without too much wear and tear. An older running back – after playing four seasons of college ball – would seem to not be that desirable for an NFL team. Yet, Etienne chose to stay at Clemson for one year anyway. It’s a decision that shows a love for college football and a desire to win another national championship. Etienne has won only one; he obviously wants a second one.
He’s the best bet to be the top pick in the draft. He’s rushed for 1600+ yards the last two seasons and last year, became a huge threat out of the backfield with 432 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. He should be in the 2000-yard range with 20+ touchdowns. Those types of numbers – especially the receiving out of the backfield – should help him become the top runner picked.
Najee Harris – Alabama
Odds To Be First Drafted: +150 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Alabama offense is balanced. The Crimson Tide have Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith at receiver, which will make their passing game reasonably potent. With defenses worried about the pass, Harris could become an especially effective running back for Alabama this season. Harris is excellent at exploding through gaps in the defense. He has good burst. Side-to-side cuts need some improvement, but Harris has good vision and demonstrates a good feel for his position. He could certainly be a second-round back at a time in football history when the second round is generally regarded as the ceiling for a top running back prospect.
The challenge here is Harris will have a lot of competition for carries. Brian Robinson, Trey Sanders, Keilan Robinson are back with a trio of true freshmen – Jase McClellan, Roydell Williams, and Kyle Edwards – coming in. Harris still ran for 1224 yards and 13 touchdowns last season but his numbers will be muted compared to Etienne and the next man on the board. The flip side is maybe a team will appreciate that he has more tread on his tires.
Chuba Hubbard – Oklahoma State
Odds To Be First Drafted: +300 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Oklahoma State Cowboys have a gifted receiver in Tylan Wallace and they could have an explosive downfield passing game with Spencer Sanders, which could take the pressure off Hubbard and create lots of opportunities for him to do damage on the ground. The more balanced Oklahoma State’s offense is, the greater chance Hubbard has to produce a big season and rocket up the draft board. The key uncertainty for the Pokes is at quarterback, where Sanders needs to take a huge step forward after a rocky 2019 season. If Sanders evolves, it could all come together for Hubbard and the rest of the OSU offense. If not, Hubbard won’t have the ideal set of circumstances he needs to improve his draft stock.
Kylin Hill – Mississippi State
Odds To Be First Drafted: +450 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Mississippi State Bulldogs enter the 2020 season with a new head coach. Joe Moorhead failed to make his offense work at MSU, so he was fired. Mike Leach, the noted passing game strategist, is his new head coach. This might seem like a bad fit, but Leach will trust his running game if he sees that it is working for him. Also, Hill is a good receiver, which should give him a great opportunity.
Leach doesn’t automatically abandon the run; one should not assume that he will ignore Hill within the context of his 2020 offense. The problem this year is not so much Leach himself, but the fact that Hill has to endure a change of coaches and a change of systems. That’s not the circumstance in which any running back wants to have his final college season before the draft.
Prediction
I love Hubbard but it feels like he has athletic limitations and might not measure so well in the combine. As for Harris, he’s a 230-pound back and the league is mostly moving away from guys like that – especially since he’s not great as a receiver. With Hill, he’s in a new system where he could boom-or-bust, and with Hubbard, while it seems like the issues with head coach Mike Gundy have been quelled, for some reason, I feel like there’s still some friction beneath the surface.
Etienne has legit 4.3 speed, is a proven runner and is excellent out of the backfield as a receiver. He’s the safest play at this point.
Pick: Travis Etienne -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.