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2021 NFL Draft Props: First Offensive Lineman Drafted

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With the 2020 NFL Draft now nothing more than a fond memory, 2021 NFL Draft props have been released. Getting an early jump on these lines often presents value.

In some cases, it is ideal to take advantage of current lines rather than waiting until next year, when the odds on certain favorites could become more unfavorable. The future prop where this is perhaps most true is for the first offensive lineman selected during the 2021 NFL Draft. A prohibitive favorite is still listed at a reasonable number based on his actual probability of winning the award. Let’s take a look at the odds and candidates to determine if he is actually the best value available. 

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First OL drafted (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

  • Penei Sewell (-400)
  • Alex Leatherwood (+400)
  • Walker Little (+700)
  • Sam Cosmi (+1200)
  • Jalen Mayfield (+1400)

The Candidates

Penei Sewell (LT – Oregon): -400
A virtual lock to be the first offensive lineman selected in the 2021 NFL Draft, Penei Sewell has been discussed as the best offensive tackle prospect in recent memory. He was highly impressive as a sophomore at Oregon and could indeed develop into the top offensive tackle prospect we have seen since at least 2010. Sewell moves laterally with the agility of someone with a hoops background, and he appears to have enough athleticism to stay with NFL edge-rushers. He consistently flattens would-be defenders and anchored arguably the best offensive line in the Pac-12. Sewell is special enough to convince a team with an established quarterback in place to hold onto the first overall pick in order to land him, rather than taking the ransom they may get to trade the pick to a team chasing Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, or Trey Lance. 

Alex Leatherwood (LT – Alabama): +400
Alex Leatherwood is a talented left tackle whose raw power pops on tape. Although he manned the left side, he did not open the season as a blindside protector because Tua Tagovailoa is left-handed. He showed enough to be a Day 2 pick, so it was a bit of a surprise that he decided to go back to school for his senior season. He does have the obligatory technique issues to clean up, but he will likely need to improve by leaps and bounds to elevate his draft stock by more than a handful of picks. While Leatherwood has talent, he is not a serious threat to unseat Sewell as the top offensive lineman in the class. He may even end up selected after names not included for this prop like Liam Eichenberg and Jackson Carman. 

Walker Little (LT – Stanford): +700
Walker Little will be a first-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. However, we’re trying to ascertain whether or not he has the talent and skillset to pass Sewell. Little has the lateral movement skills to stick at left tackle, and he could even potentially be a top 10 pick. And yet, barring Sewell getting injured or bombing the 2021 NFL Combine, Little will likely be the second or third offensive lineman off the board next April. 

Sam Cosmi (LT – Texas) +1200
Sam Cosmi is a talented left tackle who is sure to climb up the positional rankings this upcoming season. He could very well be the second offensive lineman drafted, but he will need to make a Jedrick Wills-like leap in order to even garner consideration ahead of Sewell. A sure-fire first-round talent who could be the first offensive lineman off the board in some classes, Cosmi is a strong fade as long as Sewell is healthy and willing to play this upcoming season. If searching for a second offensive lineman off the board prop, look at Cosmi.

Jalen Mayfield (RT – Michigan) +1400
Jalen Mayfield is a strong right tackle prospect who does not necessarily excite, but has the makings of a long-term starter in the NFL. He has solid lateral movement skills and appears to possess the athleticism to stay on the edge. If he can improve as expected in his junior season, he should hear his name called in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. However, he is not the same caliber of prospect that Sewell is. Barring an injury to the Ducks’ left tackle, Mayfield will not be the first offensive lineman off the board. 

Final Thoughts

As alluded to above, some already view Sewell as the best offensive tackle prospect to enter the NFL Draft in years. If the -400 odds were not enough to convince you, the fact that he won the Outland Trophy over names like 2020 fourth overall pick Andrew Thomas, seventh overall pick Derrick Brown, and 13th overall pick Tristan Wirfs should. Perhaps his most impressive stat is that he had 45 plus knockdowns this past season, including five games with at least five.

Winning the award over Thomas, the cleanest offensive tackle prospect we have seen in years, accentuates just how impressive Sewell was as a sophomore. Nobody else in the 2021 NFL Draft class comes close to Thomas as an offensive lineman prospect. As such, Sewell is a no-brainer play despite the high juice. If four units for a one-unit return is not your cup of tea, consider a one-unit play for a partial unit return. The win probability here is high enough that you can count this as a 25 percent return on investment, which would be impossible for most other investment vehicles. 

Pick: Penei Sewell (-400)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.