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2021 NFL Draft Props: First Overall Pick

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With the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. With the 2020 NFL Draft now in the books, sportsbooks have begun to release draft props for 2021. Position-specific props have been released, but so has odds for the number one overall pick. As anyone who pays attention to college football will no doubt tell you, the player to be drafted first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft has been considered a virtual lock since 2018. However, the question remains as to which of the players listed at DraftKings represents the best value. Let’s take a look at the candidates. 

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First overall pick (via DraftKings)

The Candidates 

Trevor Lawrence (QB – Clemson)
Trevor Lawrence is the current favorite to be the number one overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. As the odds listed by DraftKings suggest, at this point in time there is a considerable gap between him and the other two potential contenders in Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields and Oregon left tackle Penei Sewell. Lawrence has been viewed as arguably the best quarterback prospect in college football since his breakout freshman season but has an arduous path ahead of him in terms of dealing with the losses of Tee Higgins (NFL) and Justyn Ross (season-ending and potentially career-ending surgery). Still, the number one overall pick appears to be Trevor Lawrence to lose and barring a complete face plant, the odds should reflect that all the way up until the 2021 NFL Draft.

Justin Fields (QB – Ohio State)
Justin Fields is a talented quarterback who is currently projected as having the best chance to unseat Trevor Lawrence as the favorite to be the number one overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He has first overall type of upside but still has some flaws in his game he will be looking to work on. Luckily, while Lawrence will deal with a severe depletion of talent at wide receiver, Fields will welcome numerous top recruits to help make up what is likely the most talented wide receiver room in all of college football. Having all that talent at his disposal should allow him to have the type of season needed to put some serious heat on Lawrence. With that being said, there is only so much Fields will be able to do on his own in terms of passing Trevor Lawrence. Much of the perceived opportunity to pass Lawrence will come from the Clemson quarterback's own progression or lack thereof. This is something to bear in mind before dropping any units on Fields. 

Penei Sewell (LT – Oregon)
Penei Sewell is a talented left tackle from Oregon who is currently the prohibitive favorite to be the first offensive lineman drafted during the 2021 NFL Draft. Already advanced enough as a sophomore that he would have likely been the second offensive lineman drafted in 2020, another year of growth and seasoning should only serve to confirm his dominance. He has a path to being the first overall pick, as a team with a franchise quarterback could end up with the first overall pick, and view the potential franchise-altering left tackle as a superior option to any trade package they may receive for the pick. While it is still unlikely that Lawrence does not go first overall, if any player truly has a chance to be drafted before him, it should be Sewell. 

Ja'Marr Chase (WR – LSU)
As good as Ja'Marr Chase was in 2019, he still would not have been drafted first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft was he eligible to declare. Now, with Joe Burrow in the NFL, and offensive coordinator Joe Brady taking a job with the Carolina Panthers, Chase is expected to show some regression. Myles Brennnan is a fine prospect, but thinking he can come close to matching what Burrow was able to do in Brady's offense would be foolhardy at best. Chase is an elite receiver who could crack the top 10 in the 2021 NFL Draft, but his chances of going first overall are microscopic at best.

D'Eriq King (QB – Miami)
Dual-threat quarterback D'Eriq King will have an exciting opportunity to prove he can succeed against the tougher competition of the ACC, but will likely have a hard time convincing NFL evaluators that he is a better prospect than Trevor Lawrence. King has an exciting game, but considering him a realistic possibility to overtake Trevor Lawrence as the consensus top prospect in this class is wishful thinking at best. It will likely take a rather serious season-ending injury to Lawrence for King to pass him in the eyes of NFL front offices. King, despite his obvious physical gifts, should not be a consideration for this first overall pick prop. 

Conclusion

As suggested above, the number one overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft is Trevor Lawrence's spot to lose. There are of course scenarios where he doesn’t go first overall, but barring an injury, the smart money is, and will be on Lawrence. The most likely path to Trevor Lawrence not going first overall, as discussed above, is that a team with a true franchise quarterback they do not wish to move on from ends up with the number one overall pick. In this scenario, landing a potential All-Pro offensive lineman will likely be preferable to moving down, making second overall where Lawrence gets drafted. 

With this in mind, a partial unit hedge on Sewell makes a lot of sense. As such our recommended strategy is this. Lay as many units as you want on Lawrence, while laying a partial unit on Sewell. For a one-unit play on Lawrence, you will bet .25 of a unit on Sewell. The return on the Sewell bet will cover your Lawrence loss. If Lawrence goes first as expected, you still make a partial unit profit. However, if you prefer to gamble and go straight up, Trevor Lawrence is the only play.

Pick: Trevor Lawrence (-305) at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.

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