2021 NFL Draft Props: First Quarterback Selected
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Getting an early jump on 2021 NFL Draft props can have its advantages. This is especially true in the current climate, as there’s no guarantee that college football teams will even play.
Of all of the skill position props listed at DraftKings, quarterback features the widest gap between the top option and the field, not only in talent, but also in the posted lines. There are a handful of signal-callers capable of vaulting themselves ahead of the favorite, however. Let’s take a look at the names listed by DraftKings Sportsbook.
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First QB Taken (via DraftKings)
Trevor Lawrence (Clemson): -400
The 2021 NFL Draft class features an overwhelming favorite to be the first quarterback selected. Trevor Lawrence is the odds-on favorite to go first at his position (-400) and first overall (-305). Seen as the best quarterback in college football since his freshman season, only an injury or a Trey Lance explosion can stop Lawrence from going first overall.
That said, he failed to make a noticeable leap from his freshman to his sophomore season, and he won’t have either Tee Higgins (NFL) or Justyn Ross (possible career-ending surgery) anymore. Frank Ladson, E.J. Williams, and Joe Ngata are still a talented group for him to work with, but it’s fair to wonder if the odds here are too short following the news about Ross.
Justin Fields (Ohio State): +350
Justin Fields is a talented quarterback, and he’s the consensus number two quarterback in next year’s class. Experts often frame the discussion for the number one overall pick as a two-way race between Trevor Lawrence and Fields. While Fields has some work to do to top Lawrence, he has the benefit of playing on a team overloaded receiving talent.
This should allow him to post the numbers he’ll need to pass Lawrence in the eyes of NFL evaluators. He has undeniable talent, but nothing about his current tape suggests that he has a higher ceiling than Lawrence. He’ll need next season to change that perception.
D’Eriq King (Miami): +1000
A talented graduate transfer from Houston, D’Eriq King will look to make a true name for himself at the University of Miami. King has a good arm and elite wheels, and he holds the FBS record for the most consecutive games with both a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown. Playing for Houston in the AAC has, of course, led to many detractors. He may also have some character concerns to overcome after redshirting himself to preserve his final season of college eligibility.
He chose Miami over the likes of LSU, so I’m interested to see how well he fares in the ACC. He’ll get to work with head coach Manny Diaz and new offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee. King has the talent to go before Lawrence or Fields, but he needs to prove himself in a tougher conference.
Jamie Newman (Georgia): +1200
Another talented graduate transfer, Jamie Newman left Wake Forest to join the competitive SEC. He joins the Georgia Bulldogs, a team that lost Jake Fromm to the NFL, and he’s expected to step in immediately as the starter.
Georgia also added J.T. Daniels from USC this offseason, but Newman should start this year with Daniels taking over in 2021. Newman has some impressive traits, but it’s a surprise to see him among the top-five quarterbacks in next year’s class. He’ll have a chance to work his way into the first-round mix with a strong season in Georgia’s pro-style offense.
Sam Ehlinger (Texas): +1800
Sam Ehlinger is a fringe day one prospect at best. He has the talent to be a starter in the league, but he could get squeezed out in today’s NFL. There are only a handful of teams that actually need a quarterback each year, and as this offseason has shown us, there’s now a glut of starting-level options in the NFL.
Is he good enough to beat out the starters in Jacksonville, Chicago, or New England? Yes. Is he talented enough to fend off blue-chip rookie competition from the 2022 or 2023 class? No. He will need to improve his accuracy and decision-making by leaps and bounds if he wants to be anything more than a dart throw. As of now, I don’t think he’s fighting to become the first quarterback off the board in next year’s draft.
Conclusion
As the odds suggest, Trevor Lawrence is the overwhelming favorite to be the first quarterback taken in 2021. He could develop into a generational talent, and experts view him as the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. As mentioned above, he’s the current favorite to go first overall. He’d need to face plant completely to fall out of the current conversation.
Every other quarterback on this list could get passed by one another — or by a quarterback not even listed by DraftKings. That’s NDSU’s Trey Lance.
The -400 for Lawrence is rough, especially in the wake of Justyn Ross’ injury. That said, he remains the smartest play for both casuals and income bettors. Those looking for more of a relative longshot could take a stab at Justin Fields or look for Trey Lance’s odds at another book. If you’re looking for a return on investment, however, Trevor Lawrence is the only play.
Pick: Trevor Lawrence (-400)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.