2021 NFL Draft Props: First Running Back Selected
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With the 2020 NFL Draft now in the books, sportsbooks have begun to release odds for the 2021 NFL Draft. We will take a look at all of the draft props currently listed, kicking things off with the running back position. While the last two years ran counter to this train of thought, identifying the first running back selected in an upcoming draft is often an easier proposition than doing so for the other skill positions.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the running backs who currently have the top odds to get selected first in the 2021 NFL Draft are all seniors who were eligible to declare for the 2020 draft. All of them chose to go back to school for different reasons and are now Vegas’ favorites to go early next year. Let’s take a look at the leading names.
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First RB Selected Candidates (via DraftKings)
Travis Etienne (Clemson): -125
Travis Etienne is a talented running back who could have very well been the first running back taken in 2020. He decided to go back to school after not receiving a first-round grade, citing that a degree was more important than being a second-round pick (and likely the associated contract) who didn’t graduate.
Etienne has universal scheme appeal and profiles as an increasingly rare workhorse type who rarely leaves the field. He should make it a point to work on his receiving skills as a senior, which would only strengthen his case to be the first back off the board. Look for Etienne to solidify his standing as the number one running back in next year’s class at the 2021 NFL Combine. He has sub 4.4-speed jets and should test in that range barring an injury. Etienne should be the favorite right up to the 2021 NFL Draft.
Najee Harris (Alabama): +150
Najee Harris is a talented running back who, as a mere sophomore, was more highly regarded than 2019 first-round pick Josh Jacobs and 2019 third-round pick Damien Harris, both teammates at Alabama. An impressive power back with underrated hands, Harris has enough talent to be the first running back selected in 2021.
From a raw stats perspective, he will likely not be the most productive back who declares in 2021. But as we saw with Jacobs, tape and analytics often matter more than raw numbers. While Harris will have a tough task in passing Etienne in the eyes of scouts, his size (6’2″, 227 lbs) may put him over the top on some draft boards.
Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma State): +300
Despite a sensational red-shirt sophomore season that saw him explode for 2,094 rushing yards, Chuba Hubbard made the decision not to declare for the 2020 NFL Draft. Returning to school makes some sense, as he still stands to improve elements of his game despite an outstanding season.
With another strong season, Hubbard will remain firmly in the mix to be the first running back selected in the 2021 NFL Draft. An explosive runner with track speed, Hubbard handled 351 touches in 2019. As exciting as they come with a penchant for turning nothing into something, Hubbard can solidify his position on NFL draft boards if he continues to improve as a receiver.
Kylin Hill (Mississippi State): +450
A talented running back set to explode in new head coach Mike Leach’s Air Raid system, Kylin Hill has a chance to morph the perception of him as a second-round type into that of a first-round talent. Hill has all the traits NFL teams look for in a potential starter, but he is listed at +450 due to the perceived superior talent of the three running backs mentioned above him. However, if he can haul in 60 plus balls in 2020, Hill may rise to the number one back on more than a few NFL draft boards.
He will likely need to add a standout performance at the 2021 NFL Combine to truly move past Hubbard, Harris, and Etienne, but ascending to the consensus top back in this class is not outside the realm of possibility.
Conclusion
While every running back listed has some appeal and value, Etienne appears to be the safest bet on the board at -125. Not only is he the current favorite, but he is the most talented. As posited above, even in the loaded 2020 running back class, Etienne would have likely been the first running back selected.
It would be a surprise if someone passed a healthy Etienne in terms of odds, but there are some threats. Harris has the talent, but does not possess the universal scheme appeal to be a Vegas favorite. Although he could change that if he hauls in 50 passes, that’s unlikely given Alabama’s backfield depth. Hubbard has the obvious talent to be the first drafted, but he will need to post another sensational season to do so.
Zamir White and Kenneth Gainwell, not even listed by DraftKings, lurk as the most likely running backs to surprisingly become the first taken in 2021. White, 2018’s number one overall running back recruit, is expected to be Georgia’s lead back in the wake of D’Andre Swift’s departure to the NFL. Kenneth Gainwell is as elite as they come as a receiving option. If he can add some weight and improve his reads, he could be the first running back on multiple draft boards.
With that said, Etienne will likely see his odds become less favorable as time progresses. So if he is your lean, now may be the time to act. Be sure to shop lines before placing your wager, but per our live odds page, DraftKings is currently offering the best odds on Etienne.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.